Fantasy Predictions: Homestead (Ford 400) (Post Qualifying, Practice)

It All Comes Down To This


Click here for the starting lineup.

Jordan's Top Ten for the Ford 400: 

Driver - Fantasy Price - Car - Starting Position

 

1. Carl Edwards - $20.70 - #99 Aflac Ford - Starts 2nd

I had Cousin Carl as my number one in my preview article, and my mind hasn't changed. He has the momentum from his win last week and starts on the front row. In addition to that, he was third in average speed. Carl has never finished worse than 14th at Homestead and his average career finish here is 6.5.

 

2. Kevin Harvick - $27.00 - #29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet - Starts 28th

"Happy" looked pretty happy in practice, and so did his car: he ended up 5th on the average speed chart. Expect Harvick to get to the front and stay there and, with a little luck, maybe take home a championship as well as the race trophy. He finished 3rd here in 2009.

 

3. Jeff Gordon - $22.90 - #24 DuPont Chevrolet - Starts 11th

Gordon has never won at Homestead, but he's riding a three-race streak of top tens here, and I don't see that changing this week. He was 8th on the average speed chart and will roll off the grid in 11th. His average career finish here is 9.5.

 

4. Jimmie Johnson - $24.00 - #48 Lowe's Chevrolet - Starts 6th

Jimmie's "drive for five" will finally reach its conclusion this week and he got off to a fast start in qualifying, putting his Chevy at 6th. He got a good pit stall because of it and has an opening in front of him, so he won't get blocked in. Don't worry about his low average speed; Johnson is rarely high on the average speed chart. He's been sand bagging this race for four years and he ended up 5th last year. I wonder how good he will be able to do now that he has something to drive for.

 

5. Denny Hamlin - $23.90 - #11 FedEx Express Toyota - Starts 37th

Denny starts in the back but he started in 38th last year and won the race, so I'm not too worried. He was average in practice (13th in average speed) but I think he has a lot better car than he showed on Saturday. Hamlin is my pick to win the championship and I still see that happening.

 

6. Kasey Kahne - $14.30 - #83 Red Bull Toyota - Starts 1st

I exercise caution with Kahne for the simple fact he still isn't used to this team, but he seems to be pretty fast. He won the pole on Friday and ended up 6th in average speed on Saturday. Kahne has two finishes in the top ten at Homestead, but his other four races have been 16th or worse. 

 

7. Jeff Burton - $22.20 - #31 Caterpillar Chevrolet - Starts 14th

Burton ended up in the top ten in both ten-lap average charts and was a surprising 16th in overall average speed (he is usually around 25th). Jeff finished 2nd here last year but, like Kahne, he is very inconsistent: he has three top fifteens at Homestead but three finishes of 25th or worse.

 

8. Mark Martin - $20.10 - #5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet - Starts 8th

Martin is riding a eight-race streak of top fifteens and I think he will continue that this week. He starts in 8th and while he didn't look phenomenal in practice, he usually doesn't (28th in average speed). He won't challenge for the win, but a top ten is definitely within Mark's grasps.

 

9. Clint Bowyer - $17.50 - #33 Cheerios Chevrolet - Starts 17th

Clint was 12th in Happy Hour average speed (18th overall) but I see him doing a little better than that on Sunday. Clint has four career starts here and has finished inside the top eleven in three of the four races. Over the past two years, his average finish is 8th at Homestead and I see him ending up around there this weekend.

 

10. Martin Truex, Jr. - $19.30 - #56 NAPA Auto Parts - Starts 25th

Truex is very surprising to some people, but he has always been good at Homestead. In five career starts, he has four top tens and an average finish of 11.8. Truex was low on the average speed chart but was in the top ten in both ten-lap averages.

 

On The Outside Looking In:

 

Bill Elliott - He was my sleeper early in the week and backed up my predictions on Friday (he qualified 4th) as well as Saturday (1st in average speed). A top ten may be a reach, but a top fifteen has a great possibility. Excellent low-dollar option this week.

 

Aric Almirola - Almirola has been impressive since taking over the 9 car and he usually nets right around 100 points per race--which is very good considering his very low price. He was 10th in average speed and starts 24th.

 

David Ragan - Ragan qualified 9th (kind of surprising) and was 10th in ten-lap averages in Happy Hour. He was low on the average speed chart--as usual--but I expect a solid top twenty from him.

Average Practice Speeds: Homestead (Ford 400)

Kasey Kahne got his fourth pole of the season (and first with Red Bull Racing) on Friday, edging out last week's winner, Carl Edwards. Click here to view the starting lineup for the race on Sunday. Saturday's first practice session was held at 1:30 ET and Happy Hour at 2:50. The race is scheduled to start around 1:00 ET on Sunday.

Regan Smith hit the wall in first practice and his team spent much of the session making repairs (he ran only 7 laps). Kyle Busch hit the wall as well but there wasn't very much damage.

Click on the links (blue portions) to go to practice speed charts.
 
Top 5 for Practice Two:
1. Kyle Busch
2. Jeff Burton
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Greg Biffle
5. Mark Martin
 
Top 5 for Happy Hour:
1. Jeff Burton
2. Kasey Kahne
3. Martin Truex, Jr.
4. Denny Hamlin
5. Jamie McMurray
 
10-Lap Average speeds are much more important than one fast lap.
 
The top ten fastest at 10-lap averages in Happy Hour were:
 
1. David Reutimann
2. Kasey Kahne
3. Aric Almirola
4. Bill Elliott
5. Paul Menard
6. Martin Truex, Jr.
7. Jeff Burton
8. Kevin Harvick
9. Tony Stewart
10. David Ragan
 
10-lap average speeds in Saturday's first practice:
 
1. A.J. Allmendinger
2. Jeff Burton
3. Carl Edwards
4. Matt Kenseth
5. Tony Stewart
6. Martin Truex, Jr.
7. Paul Menard
8. Aric Almirola
9. Ryan Newman
10. Kurt Busch
 
Average speeds are calculated by taking the average speed of each driver in each practice and multiplying it by the number of laps ran. When you do this for each practice and add the two totals together, and then divide by the total number of laps ran, you get a pretty good indicator on who has a fast car. The order that they are in is the overall average speeds rank. In parenthesis after each driver will be their rank of average speed in Happy Hour, which will probably be more helpful since it is more close to the conditions that the race will be on Saturday (although neither were very close). 

1. Bill Elliott @ 166.539 mph over 70 laps (2nd in Happy Hour average speed)
2. David Reutimann @ 166.465 mph over 80 laps (1st in Happy Hour average speed)
3. Carl Edwards @ 166.341 mph over 52 laps (8th in Happy Hour average speed)
4. Paul Menard @ 166.297 mph over 70 laps (3rd in Happy Hour average speed)
5. Kevin Harvick @ 166.178 mph over 71 laps (5th in Happy Hour average speed)
6. Kasey Kahne @ 166.138 mph over 71 laps (6th in Happy Hour average speed)
7. Ryan Newman @ 166.057 mph over 68 laps (7th in Happy Hour average speed)
8. Jeff Gordon @ 166.055 mph over 59 laps (4th in Happy Hour average speed)
9. Marcos Ambrose @ 166.027 mph over 56 laps (10th in Happy Hour average speed)
10. Aric Almirola @ 165.968 mph over 87 laps (11th in Happy Hour average speed)
11. Kurt Busch @ 165.929 mph over 75 laps (9th in Happy Hour average speed)
12. Scott Speed @ 165.912 mph over 44 laps (15th in Happy Hour average speed)
13. Denny Hamlin @ 165.899 mph over 88 laps (14th in Happy Hour average speed)
14. Regan Smith @ 165.874 mph over 51 laps (13th in Happy Hour average speed)
15. Kyle Busch @ 165.871 mph over 83 laps (18th in Happy Hour average speed)
16. Jeff Burton @ 165.782 mph over 91 laps (20th in Happy Hour average speed)
17. Tony Stewart @ 165.743 mph over 89 laps (21st in Happy Hour average speed)
18. Jimmie Johnson @ 165.733 mph over 78 laps (17th in Happy Hour average speed)
19. Clint Bowyer @ 165.690 mph over 71 laps (12th in Happy Hour average speed)
20. Juan Montoya @ 165.651 mph over 67 laps (24th in Happy Hour average speed)
21. Elliott Sadler @ 165.648 mph over 56 laps (16th in Happy Hour average speed)
22. Martin Truex, Jr. @ 165.630 mph over 98 laps (28th in Happy Hour average speed)
23. Joey Logano @ 165.574 mph over 78 laps (22nd in Happy Hour average speed)
24. Jamie McMurray @ 165.365 mph over 68 laps (25th in Happy Hour average speed)
25. Matt Kenseth @ 165.341 mph over 66 laps (19th in Happy Hour average speed)
26. Greg Biffle @ 165.327 mph over 69 laps (29th in Happy Hour average speed)
27. David Ragan @ 165.271 mph over 91 laps (23rd in Happy Hour average speed)
28. Mark Martin @ 165.265 mph over 80 laps (30th in Happy Hour average speed)
29. A.J. Allmendinger @ 165.202 mph over 66 laps (26th in Happy Hour average speed)
30. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. @ 164.962 mph over 57 laps (27th in Happy Hour average speed)
31. Casey Mears @ 164.872 mph over 59 laps (32nd in Happy Hour average speed)
32. Brad Keselowski @ 164.786 mph over 91 laps (31st in Happy Hour average speed)
33. Sam Hornish, Jr. @ 163.459 mph over 47 laps (34th in Happy Hour average speed)
34. Bobby Labonte @ 163.143 mph over 61 laps (33rd in Happy Hour average speed)

Fantasy Preview: Homestead (Ford 400)

Hamlin Has Everything To Lose


If it wasn't for a late race pit stop in Phoenix for fuel, Hamlin would have a comfortable lead over Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick heading into the final race of the season. However, after a 12th-place effort, Denny Hamlin finds himself just 15 points ahead of Johnson and 46 in front of Harvick. One good thing for Hamlin, though: last year at Homestead, he won after starting 38th. Click here to see how they finished at Homestead-Miami Speedway in 2009 as Jimmie Johnson won his fourth consecutive championship.

My Preliminary Top Seven

for the Ford 400

 

1. Carl Edwards - Fresh off his win at Phoenix, I expect to see Edwards follow that up with a solid run at Homestead. He has made six career starts here and has never finished worse than 14th--and that was his first start here. He also has the best average finish of anyone in the Cup series at 6.5. He won here in 2008 after starting 8th.

 

2. Kevin Harvick - If Happy was a little closer in the championship standings, he would be my pick to be the 2010 champion. However, it will take a lot of luck for that too happen (although, in my opinion, Harvick has been the best this year). He has never won here but his last two finishes have been 2nd and 3rd in the finale. Harvick will be trying his hardest for the win--both in the race and championship--and I expect him to finish up front. His career average finish here is 8.4.

 

3. Denny Hamlin - It's Hamlin's championship to lose and he's coming to a track where he has found success before. He won the finale last year after starting 38th and has two other third-place finishes in five career starts at the speedway. Don't expect Hamlin to start very well, though: he has never rolled off the grid better than 25th in his career at Homestead-Miami.

 

4. Jeff Gordon - With an average career finish of 9.5 in eleven starts at Homestead, look for Gordon to have a good day on Sunday. He's finished outside of the top ten just twice in his career here and while he hasn't finished better than third at this track, he does have five top fives. Gordon hasn't finished better than 8th in the past month and a half but I see that changing on Sunday.

 

5. Jimmie Johnson - JJ has never won here--surprisingly--but does have three top fives to his credit and six top tens in his nine career starts at Homestead-Miami. He's started on the pole in two of the last three races here and came away with top tens in both of those (5th and 7th). He actually has something to race for at Homestead in 2010 so expect a very good race come Sunday.

 

6. Mark Martin - I said a couple weeks ago that Martin won't come off of my weekly top seven until he has a bad week and that hasn't happened yet. After his 8th-place finish in Phoenix last week, Martin is now riding an eight-race streak of top 15s coming into a track where he has found success at (but never won at). Mark's average finish here is 12th and I see no reason why he won't have another good finish on Sunday.

 

7. Martin Truex, Jr. - Hey, we finally have a week where we can pick Truex! He's not your first thought when you think of Homestead-Miami Speedway, but the guy has ran good here his entire career. His average finish is 11.8 in five career starts and he has finished outside of the top ten just once (flat tire his rookie year). 

 

Underdogs of the Week:

 

Bill Elliott - Call me crazy but chances are Elliott will be on my roster this week. He's an excellent value for his low cap price and will provide valuable fantasy points. His last two races driving the #21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford at Homestead-Miami Speedway have resulted in finishes of 16th and 12th.

 

A.J. Allmendinger - In two career starts here, The 'Dinger has finished 11th and 10th--and he finished 11th after starting dead last during his rookie year. In the last four races, A.J. has notched three finishes between 12th and 18th; look for him to run around the top ten on Sunday.

 

Aric Almirola - Still a very good fantasy option because of his low price. All of the top rosters last week had Almirola on them in NASCAR.com's Fantasy Cap Challenge. He has one start at Homestead, finishing 35th while driving the 8 car for DEI.

 

Don't Fool Yourself:

 

Kyle Busch - It took me a while to find Rowdy on the stat sheet this week because he was so low. Tony Raines, Kyle Petty, Mike Wallace, Jason Leffler, and Scott Speed are some examples of drivers that have better career average finishes at Homestead-Miami than Kyle. Five career starts have produced just one top ten and an average finish of 25.2 for Busch.

 

Tony Stewart - He may have won here twice but he hasn't been very good lately. Since 2005 he has only one top ten (a 9th in 2008). Smoke has also been less than stellar in the past month: not a single top ten since his win at California.

 

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Junior is coming off a 14th-place run at Phoenix but don't think that was the beginning of something good for NASCAR's golden boy. He has made ten career starts at Homestead but hasn't come home with a top ten yet. His average finish is an abysmal 23.9.

Results: Phoenix 2 (Kobalt Tools 500)

Edwards Sweeps Weekend at Phoenix



1. Carl Edwards @ 128.246 mph over 71 laps (2nd in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 1st. Wasn't lower than 3rd all day it seemed.
2. Kevin Harvick @ 128.174 mph over 51 laps (4th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 6th. Solid all day.
3. Jeff Gordon @ 127.985 mph over 81 laps (1st in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 11th.
4. Juan Montoya @ 127.978 mph over 59 laps (8th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 16th. Ran out of fuel running in 2nd.
5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. @ 127.953 mph over 74 laps (7th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 14th.
6. Jamie McMurray @ 127.812 mph over 68 laps (10th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 10th. Hit wall early. Surprising finish.
7. Mark Martin @ 127.782 mph over 84 laps (5th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 8th.
8. Martin Truex, Jr. @ 127.780 mph over 61 laps (3rd in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 15th.
9. Greg Biffle @ 127.702 mph over 64 laps (9th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 4th. Top ten all day.
10. Kasey Kahne @ 127.628 mph over 52 laps (6th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 30th.
11. Denny Hamlin @ 127.625 mph over 83 laps (14th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 12th. Led the most laps but had to pit late for fuel.
12. A.J. Allmendinger @ 127.486 mph over 77 laps (13th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 18th. Top ten for first half of race.
13. Jeff Burton @ 127.407 mph over 76 laps (11th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 19th.
14. Ryan Newman @ 127.401 mph over 70 laps (20th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 2nd. Wasn't great but got the finish.
15. Casey Mears @ 127.385 mph over 48 laps (17th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 24th.
16. Paul Menard @ 127.379 mph over 75 laps (16th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 29th.
17. David Reutimann @ 127.298 mph over 65 laps (21st in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 26th.
18. Matt Kenseth @ 127.282 mph over 62 laps (18th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 7th.
19. Kurt Busch @ 127.280 mph over 69 laps (12th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 9th. Strong early but fell back.
20. Jimmie Johnson @ 127.266 mph over 80 laps (23rd in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 5th.
21. Marcos Ambrose @ 127.239 mph over 37 laps (19th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 22nd. Ran there all day.
22. Joey Logano @ 127.190 mph over 98 laps (26th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 3rd. Ran top fifteen all race and moved up to 3rd late.
23. Tony Stewart @ 127.185 mph over 74 laps (24th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 17th. Had a better car than that.
24. David Ragan @ 127.148 mph over 71 laps (25th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 25th.
25. Kyle Busch @ 127.067 mph over 92 laps (29th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 13th.
26. Sam Hornish, Jr. @ 127.012 mph over 56 laps (30th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 32nd. Feel bad for whoever picked him this week.
27. Aric Almirola @ 126.938 mph over 74 laps (22nd in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 27th. Started 9th and fell back quick.
28. Robby Gordon @ 126.916 mph over 54 laps (32rd in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 33rd.
29. Scott Speed @ 126.901 mph over 55 laps (15th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 35th.
30. Clint Bowyer @ 126.883 mph over 50 laps (28th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 21st. Hit wall early.
31. Elliott Sadler @ 126.825 mph over 5 laps (27th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 28th.
32. Bobby Labonte @ 126.725 mph over 60 laps (33rd in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 20th. 
33. Regan Smith @ 126.557 mph over 67 laps (31st in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 23rd.
34. Brad Keselowski @ 126.405 mph over 110 laps (34th in Happy Hour average speed)
Finished 42nd. Hit wall early.

Average Practice Speeds: Phoenix 2 (Kobalt Tools 500)

Carl Edwards set a new track record on Friday as he captured his third pole of the 2010 season. Click here to view the starting lineup for the race on Sunday. Saturday's first practice session was held at 1:45 ET and Happy Hour at 3:00. The race is scheduled to start around 3:00 ET on Sunday.

Click on the links (blue portions) to go to practice speed charts.
 
Top 5 for Practice Two:
1. Carl Edwards
2. Kurt Busch
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Matt Kenseth
5. Jeff Burton
 
Top 5 for Happy Hour:
1. Carl Edwards
2. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Denny Hamlin
5. Kevin Harvick
 
10-Lap Average speeds are much more important than one fast lap.
 
The top ten fastest at 10-lap averages in Happy Hour were:
 
1. Carl Edwards
2. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
3. Jeff Gordon
4. A.J. Allmendinger
5. Mark Martin
6. Joey Logano
7. Brad Keselowski
8. David Reutimann
9. Denny Hamlin
10. Juan Montoya
 
10-lap average speeds in Saturday's first practice:
 
1. Juan Montoya
2. A.J. Allmendinger
3. Carl Edwards
4. Jeff Gordon
5. Kevin Harvick
6. Kurt Busch
7. Paul Menard
8. Martin Truex, Jr.
9. Kyle Busch
10. Aric Almirola
 
Average speeds are calculated by taking the average speed of each driver in each practice and multiplying it by the number of laps ran. When you do this for each practice and add the two totals together, and then divide by the total number of laps ran, you get a pretty good indicator on who has a fast car. The order that they are in is the overall average speeds rank. In parenthesis after each driver will be their rank of average speed in Happy Hour, which will probably be more helpful since it is more close to the conditions that the race will be on Saturday (although neither were very close).

1. Carl Edwards @ 128.246 mph over 71 laps (2nd in Happy Hour average speed)
2. Kevin Harvick @ 128.174 mph over 51 laps (4th in Happy Hour average speed)
3. Jeff Gordon @ 127.985 mph over 81 laps (1st in Happy Hour average speed)
4. Juan Montoya @ 127.978 mph over 59 laps (8th in Happy Hour average speed)
5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. @ 127.953 mph over 74 laps (7th in Happy Hour average speed)
6. Jamie McMurray @ 127.812 mph over 68 laps (10th in Happy Hour average speed)
7. Mark Martin @ 127.782 mph over 84 laps (5th in Happy Hour average speed)
8. Martin Truex, Jr. @ 127.780 mph over 61 laps (3rd in Happy Hour average speed)
9. Greg Biffle @ 127.702 mph over 64 laps (9th in Happy Hour average speed)
10. Kasey Kahne @ 127.628 mph over 52 laps (6th in Happy Hour average speed)
11. Denny Hamlin @ 127.625 mph over 83 laps (14th in Happy Hour average speed)
12. A.J. Allmendinger @ 127.486 mph over 77 laps (13th in Happy Hour average speed)
13. Jeff Burton @ 127.407 mph over 76 laps (11th in Happy Hour average speed)
14. Ryan Newman @ 127.401 mph over 70 laps (20th in Happy Hour average speed)
15. Casey Mears @ 127.385 mph over 48 laps (17th in Happy Hour average speed)
16. Paul Menard @ 127.379 mph over 75 laps (16th in Happy Hour average speed)
17. David Reutimann @ 127.298 mph over 65 laps (21st in Happy Hour average speed)
18. Matt Kenseth @ 127.282 mph over 62 laps (18th in Happy Hour average speed)
19. Kurt Busch @ 127.280 mph over 69 laps (12th in Happy Hour average speed)
20. Jimmie Johnson @ 127.266 mph over 80 laps (23rd in Happy Hour average speed)
21. Marcos Ambrose @ 127.239 mph over 37 laps (19th in Happy Hour average speed)
22. Joey Logano @ 127.190 mph over 98 laps (26th in Happy Hour average speed)
23. Tony Stewart @ 127.185 mph over 74 laps (24th in Happy Hour average speed)
24. David Ragan @ 127.148 mph over 71 laps (25th in Happy Hour average speed)
25. Kyle Busch @ 127.067 mph over 92 laps (29th in Happy Hour average speed)
26. Sam Hornish, Jr. @ 127.012 mph over 56 laps (30th in Happy Hour average speed)
27. Aric Almirola @ 126.938 mph over 74 laps (22nd in Happy Hour average speed)
28. Robby Gordon @ 126.916 mph over 54 laps (32rd in Happy Hour average speed)
29. Scott Speed @ 126.901 mph over 55 laps (15th in Happy Hour average speed)
30. Clint Bowyer @ 126.883 mph over 50 laps (28th in Happy Hour average speed)
31. Elliott Sadler @ 126.825 mph over 5 laps (27th in Happy Hour average speed)
32. Bobby Labonte @ 126.725 mph over 60 laps (33rd in Happy Hour average speed)
33. Regan Smith @ 126.557 mph over 67 laps (31st in Happy Hour average speed)
34. Brad Keselowski @ 126.405 mph over 110 laps (34th in Happy Hour average speed)