Denny Hamlin overtook the points lead last week in Texas and has a 33-point advantage with two races left in the Chase. Will he be able to hold it this week, though? In April, Ryan Newman picked up the win here with Gordon, Johnson, Martin, and Montoya filling out the top five. Click here for the results from the spring Phoenix race. Last year's fall race at Phoenix International Raceway was won by Jimmie Johnson. Burton, Hamlin, Martin, and Truex Jr. all picked up top fives that night. Click here for the results from last year's November Phoenix race.
My Preliminary Top Seven
for the Kobalt Tools 500
1. Jimmie Johnson - It's hard to go against the defending champ going into Phoenix. This is his best track and over 14 starts here, he has never finished worse than 15th. Over his past five starts at this racetrack, Jimmie has an average finish of 2nd with three wins. Johnson's on the offensive now and he needs a good race at Phoenix if he wants to win a fifth straight.
2. Mark Martin - Like I said last week, Martin will continue to be ranked high by me because of how well he is preforming. He notched another top five at Texas last week and has a streak of seven straight top fifteens. At Phoenix, he has four-race streak of top fives and an average career finish of 8.7. Martin is always on my radar when the series goes to a flat track.
3. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin isn't great at Phoenix, but he is driving for the championship and will bring it this week. He finished 3rd in the fall race here in 2009 and over the past five races at Phoenix, Hamlin has an average finish of 9.4 (and 11.6 over his career).
4. Jeff Burton - After last week's mishap with Gordon, Jeff Burton will come into Phoenix looking for a good run, and will probably have one. In his career, he has an average career finish of 11.4 and has collected two wins. Burton has finished outside of the top fifteen here only once since 1997.
5. Kevin Harvick - Throw Happy Harvick's past at Phoenix out the window this week. Over the past five races here, has has only one top ten (with an average finish of 18.6), and over his career--fifteen starts at Phoenix--Harvick has six top tens and an average finish of 15th. He does have two wins here, though, and he will be running harder than ever to stay in the championship picture.
6. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl has twelve starts at Phoenix International Raceway and has only four finishes outside of the top ten (an 11th, 16th, 37th, and 42nd--an engine problem). His highest finish here is only 4th, but he's ended up there three times. Carl hasn't had very good finishes lately (one top ten in the last five races) but this week is an excellent chance for him to change that.
7. Jeff Gordon - It seems like the Gordon/Burton feud has ended--for now--and the series is heading to a track that has been good for Jeff. He has made 23 starts at Phoenix and has amassed 20 top twenties. He won't challenge for the win (as he's led a lap in only one of the past six races here) but a solid top twenty can be expected.
Underdogs of the Week:
Marcos Ambrose - Ambrose has been very consistent at Phoenix over his whole career. He has four starts here, and while has never notched a top ten, he hasn't finished worse than 18th. He's finished 11th in the past two races ran here.
Sam Hornish, Jr. - Hornish is usually considered when the series heads to Phoenix, as this is his "type of track"--although, is there any track that he is really any good at? He has a one top ten here and has four straight top twenties at Phoenix.
Aric Almirola - Since taking over Kasey Kahne's #9 Ford, Almirola has been a very valuable asset for fantasy owners. Last week he finished 21st, which gave his owners 100 points. Kahne put up three top 15s in his past four starts at Phoenix in the 9, and while I don't see Aric finishing that high, he should finish right around 20th.
Don't Fool Yourself:
Ryan Newman - He won here in the spring but don't let that fool you: Newman has only four top tens in sixteen starts at Phoenix. Rocketman has a career average finish here of 21.3.
Matt Kenseth - Kenseth just hasn't been very good here lately. He's won here before, but in his past five starts here he has only one finish better than 15th.
Juan Montoya - He has two straight top tens at Phoenix but those are his only two finishes in the top fifteen in seven starts here. Watch his practice speeds and take the chance if you're feeling lucky.
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