Fantasy Predictions: Talladega 2 (Post Happy Hour, Qualifying) (Amp Energy Juice 500)

Suggestion: Make A Roster And Go With It



My opinion: don't waste your time this week trying to research and predict a perfect roster. One lap can ruin it and it's pretty much all luck at Talladega and Daytona. I still think this will be a pretty boring race up until the last five laps. Kevin Harvick won here in April and has looked impressive at all of the restrictor plate racetracks this year. Click here for the finishing order at Talladega in April.

Jordan's Top Ten for the Amp Energy Juice 500:

Driver - Fantasy Price - Car - Starting Position

1. Kevin Harvick - $27.00 - #29 Realtree/Shell-Pennzoil Chevrolet - Starts 14th
How can you bet against Happy this week? He's been the master at restrictor plate races this year with two wins and a lowest finish of seventh. He's in the same chassis this week that he won the Bud Shootout at Daytona with and it was also the chassis he piloted to the win at Talladega in April.
 
2. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - $17.10 - #88 National Guard Chevrolet - Starts 6th
Little E has three straight top thirteens at 'Dega and had a good run last week at Martinsville. With that momentum--as well as this being his best track--I see Jr challenging for the win this week. It will give Jr Nation a chance to cheer, probably their last time to do so until Daytona next February. He's racing the same chassis that finished 2nd in the Daytona 500 this year.

3. Mark Martin - $20.10 - #5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet - Starts 30th
One thing I have learned about Mark Martin is this: when he tells you he has a good car, he has a car that could challenge for the win. When they interviewed him after his qualifying run and he said this car--which has a brand new chassis--is very fast. After Martin said he had the best car he has ever had at Martinsville last week, I think he has some confidence coming into 'Dega. He finished 5th here in April.

4. Jeff Burton - $21.80 - #31 Cat Financial Chevrolet - Starts 5th
Jeff has finished in the top twelve in four of his last five races at Talladega. The chassis he is piloting this week is the same one that he finished 5th with at Daytona in July. I'm usually not a big fan of Burton fantasy wise but I see him doing good this week, and he is on my tentative roster.

5. Jamie McMurray - $16.40 - #1 Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet - Starts 12th
Like Harvick, Jamie Mac was one of the favorites coming into this week. Earnhardt-Ganassi always brings good engines to the restrictor plate tracks and this Chevrolet has the same chassis that finished 2nd at Talladega in the spring. McMurray has an average finish of 10.4  over the past seven races this year (he's finally being consistent) and I see him improving that this week.

6. Jimmie Johnson - $24.00 - #48 Lowe's Chevrolet - Starts 19th
Johnson isn't great at Talladega in the spring race, but when it comes to the fall race, he gets the finish. In his last three starts here in the fall, he has an average finish of 5.6. Johnson finished 6th at Talladega in April. Hendrick is elite when it comes to their engine package and I like three of the four in the stable to be up front in the end.

7. Kurt Busch - $21.50 - #2 Miller Lite Dodge - Starts 3rd
Finally a car other than a Chevrolet makes the list. Kurt is always a threat at restrictor plate races, although I think he is better at Daytona. His career average finish here is 12.8 and Busch finished 8th at Talladega in April (and is running the same chassis this week from that race).

8. Juan Montoya - $15.40 - #42 Target Chevrolet - Starts 1st
Montoya will either finish up front--like his 3rd place finish at 'Dega in April--or he will wreck. They brought the same chassis from April and this particular one has three top ten finishes in six races ran. Juan has Earnhardt-Ganassi engines, so you know he has the horsepower, but there is always a risk when you pick him.

9. David Ragan - $13.20 - #6 UPS "We Love Logistics" Ford - Starts 28th
This is probably one of two racetracks that Ragan is a good pick. He has an average finish of 13.3 at Talladega in his career and has finished outside of the top seventeen only once in seven career starts here. In the past five races at 'Dega, David has an average finish of 8.4.

10. Clint Bowyer - $17.50 - #33 BB&T Chevrolet - Starts 2nd
Bowyer has five top twelves in the last six races at Talladega and finished 7th here in April after starting 14th. He's piloting the same chassis that finished 4th in the Daytona 500 and has the power to get a good finish this week. If he doesn't get into a wreck he will be a good pick.

On The Outside Looking In:

Brad Keselowski - BK got his first career win here in the 09 car last year and followed that up with an 8th place finish in the fall race. He got his first top ten of the season last week at Martinsville and with a little luck, he could get his second on Sunday.

Bobby Labonte - The 09 usually gets a good finish on the restrictor plate races (it's equipped with Hendrick engines). Like I said before, Keselowski got his win in the 09 car and Mike Bliss finished 10th at Talladega in the spring race in it. 

Scott Speed - He has raced here only three times but has two top fifteens to his credit, including a 5th-place finish in last year's spring race. He finished 15th in April's race and hasn't finished worse than 24th in his past four races this year (which is good for him). He finished 10th in the July race at Daytona.
 
Don't Let Them Fool You:

Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is either hit or miss at 'Dega. He has started nine races here and has finished in the top twenty only three times (all top fives). Hamlin is on a streak and finished 4th earlier this year at 'Dega, but this could be the race he loses the championship.

 

Jeff Gordon - Gordon is always a favorite when it comes to superspeedways, and usually disappoints. His best finish at Talladega since 2008 (five races) is 19th. He has had problems in the past three races and I don't see him getting a good finish this week.

 

Tony Stewart - "Smoke" just isn't having a very good Chase. From running out of fuel at Loudon, pit problems at Dover, and a blown tire last week in Martinsville, luck just hasn't been on this team's side. He has also only finished in the top fifteen once at 'Dega in his past five races.

Average Practice Speeds: Talladega 2 (Amp Energy Juice 500)

Don't Put Much Emphasis On Practice Speeds


Both practices for this weekend's race were held on Friday, and the cars will qualify Saturday afternoon. As usual don't base your picks on practice, whether or not that is average speeds or just the practice sheets. Many cars barely practiced in Happy Hour because they either didn't want to take a chance of wrecking, or they were so satisfied with their car that they didn't deem practice as necessary.


Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Juan Montoya, Martin Truex, Jr., Elliott Sadler, Clint Boywer, Jamie McMurray, and Brad Keselowski DID NOT PARTICIPATE in Happy Hour.


Click on the links (blue underlined portions) to go to practice speed charts.

Top 5 for Practice One:
1. Denny Hamlin
2. Kyle Busch
3. Jamie McMurray
4. Jeff Gordon
5. Jimmie Johnson

Top 5 for Happy Hour:
1. Mark Martin
2. Jeff Burton
3. Kurt Busch
4. Denny Hamlin
5. David Reutimann

10-Lap Average speeds

The top ten fastest at 10-lap averages in Happy Hour were:

1. Kurt Busch
2. Jeff Burton
3. Matt Kenseth
4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
5. Mark Martin
6. Chad McCumbee
7. David Reutimann
8. Aric Almirola
9. Regan Smith
10. Carl Edwards

10-lap average speeds in Friday's first practice:

1. Jamie McMurray
2. Jeff Gordon
3. Carl Edwards
4. Joey Logano
5. David Reutimann
6. Mark Martin
7. David Ragan
8. Aric Almirola
9. Clint Bowyer
10. Marcos Ambrose

Average speeds are calculated by taking the average speed of each driver in each practice and multiplying it by the number of laps ran. When you do this for each practice and add the two totals together, and then divide by the total number of laps ran, you get a pretty good indicator on who has a fast car (although that doesn't really apply to races at Talladega and Daytona). 


1. David Reutimann @ 187.305 mph over 45 laps
2. Jeff Gordon @ 187.016 mph over 27 laps
3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. @ 186.621 mph over 43 laps
4. Carl Edwards @ 186.467 mph over 47 laps
5. Mark Martin @ 186.423 mph over 24 laps
6. Regan Smith @ 186.400 mph over 36 laps
7. Brad Keselowski @ 186.095 mph over 16 laps
8. Kurt Busch @ 185.927 mph over 45 laps
9. Joey Logano @ 185.740 mph over 36 laps
10. Jamie McMurray @ 185.334 mph over 19 laps
11. David Ragan @ 185.260 mph over 14 laps
12. Clint Bowyer @ 185.197 mph over 23 laps
13. Marcos Ambrose @ 185.164 mph over 39 laps
14. Tony Stewart @ 184.944 mph over 24 laps
15. Martin Truex, Jr. @ 184.165 mph over 17 laps
16. Sam Hornish, Jr. @ 183.708 mph over 24 laps
17. Kasey Kahne @ 183.579 mph over 34 laps
18. Paul Menard @ 183.529 mph over 28 laps
19. Kyle Busch @ 183.412 mph over 38 laps
20. Greg Biffle @ 183.058 mph over 27 laps
21. Jimmie Johnson @ 182.336 mph over 24 laps
22. Aric Almirola @ 182.127 mph over 39 laps
23. Elliott Sadler @ 182.007 mph over 13 laps
24. Denny Hamlin @ 181.982 mph over 36 laps
25. David Gilliland @ 181.765 mph over 20 laps
26. Matt Kenseth @ 181.331 mph over 36 laps
27. Jeff Burton @ 179.476 mph over 44 laps
28. Scott Speed @ 178.082 mph over 25 laps
29. Bobby Labonte @ 178.070 mph over 21 laps
30. Kevin Harvick @ 176.348 mph over 19 laps
31. A.J. Allmendinger @ 175.462 mph over 23 laps
32. Ryan Newman @ 173.542 mph over 13 laps
33. Dave Blaney @ 173.405 mph over 14 laps
34. Juan Montoya @ 173.102 mph over 6 laps
35. Michael Waltrip @ 172.140 mph over 18 laps
36. Travis Kvapil @ 171.068 mph over 18 laps
37. Bill Elliott @ 167.722 mph over 27 laps
38. Casey Mears @ 165.692 mph over 17 laps

Fantasy Preview: Talladega 2 (Amp Energy Juice 500)

Will This Be The "Wildcard" Race Everyone Thinks It Will?


One thing I hate about the Chase: how conservative every driver gets in the final ten races. All the Chase drivers know that they need to be consistent to win the championship, so none of them take chances. All of the non-Chasers are too scared to ruin someone's championship hopes by causing a wreck, so they don't run as hard. They're all too conservative. Yes, Talladega is known for big wrecks, and "The Big One" might happen this Sunday, but it wouldn't surprise me if it doesn't.

Kevin Harvick and Jamie McMurray finished 1-2 at Talledega in April. Click here for the results from the last Talladega race. Happy Harvick also won at Daytona in July and finished 7th in the Daytona 500 in February.

My Preliminary Top Seven

for the Amp Energy Juice 500:

1. Kevin Harvick - Harvick is coming off a career best finish at Martinsville and is well within the championship hunt. In the three other restrictor plate races this year, Harvick has two wins and a seventh in the other. He won here in April and has finished outside of the top ten only once since mid-September. "Happy" is on a roll and has the best average finish at Talladega between the top three in the points (15.5).

2. Jamie McMurray - Jamie Mac has been quietly consistent over the past two months. Over the last seven races, McMurray has an average finish of 10.4, fourth-best in the series. He won the Daytona 500 and narrowly finished behind Harvick at Talladega in April. McMurray has shown this year that he is a force to be reckoned with at the superspeedways--this year at least.

3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Little E has five wins here and an average career finish of 14th. He has only three top tens in his last eleven races here, but that doesn't worry me very much. He's coming off of a top ten at Martinsville and led some laps, which probably gave him so confidence. Jr is always a popular pick when the Sprint Cup series comes to either Talladega or Daytona.

4. Mark Martin - In Martin's long career, he has visited Talladega 45 times and has amassed 23 top tens and an average finish of 16.1. As I said last week, the 5 car is getting on a roll and coming back into 2009 form. They have five straight top 15s and had one of the best cars at the end of the race last week in Martinsville but finished 2nd. He finished 5th at Talladega in April.

5. Kurt Busch - Kurt is always a contender when it comes to Talladega and Daytona. The Blue Deuce finished 8th in the first Talladega race and 7th in the July race at Daytona. He has a career average finish of 12.8 in nineteen races here. Busch hasn't been very good in the past month, so this ranking may change on Saturday, but for now I see him getting a top five.

6. Jeff Burton - In the past five races at 'Dega, Burton has an average finish of 12.6, which is second best in the series. He has never won here and only has four top fives in 33 career races, but he has been getting better recently and arguably had the best car last week in Martinsville. Is he mad about not winning one of the Martinsville races this year (he had the best car in both races in some people's mind)? He may be able to learn something from Harvick and get the finish Sunday.

7. David Ragan - Surprised? Don't be. Ragan has an average career finish of 13.3 and has finished outside of the top 17 only once in his seven career races here. In the past five races at Talladega, guess who has the best average finish (of 8.4)? David Ragan. He finished 6th at 'Dega in April and has been on a "roll" (for him) recently: three finishes of 17th or better in his past four races.

Underdogs of the Week:

Scott Speed - He has raced here only three times but has two top fifteens to his credit, including a 5th-place finish in last year's spring race (he didn't run the fall race). He finished 15th in April's race and hasn't finished worse than 24th in his past four races this year (which is good for him). He finished 10th in the July race at Daytona.

Whoever is in the 09 car - I'm not sure who will be racing the 09 car this week, but they will be someone to watch for this week. Remember, Keselowski got his win at Talladega running the 09 car and Mike Bliss piloted it to a 10th-place finish in the spring race this year and Bobby Labonte got a 16th-place finish with this car at Daytona in July.

David Reutimann - Reutty finished 14th at the April Talladega race, 5th in the Daytona 500, and 11th in the July race at Daytona. If he doesn't get in a wreck or have bad luck, which has been the story of his season, he could get a good finish this week.

Don't Fool Yourself:

Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is either hit or miss at 'Dega. He has started nine races here and has finished in the top twenty only three times (all top fives). Hamlin is on a streak and finished 4th earlier this year at 'Dega, but this could be the race he loses the championship.

Jeff Gordon - Gordon is always a favorite when it comes to superspeedways, and usually disappoints. His best finish at Talladega since 2008 (five races) is 19th. He has had problems in the past three races and I don't see him getting a good finish this week.

Tony Stewart - "Smoke" just isn't having a very good Chase. From running out of fuel at Loudon, pit problems at Dover, and a blown tire last week in Martinsville, luck just hasn't been on this team's side. He has also only finished in the top fifteen once at 'Dega in his past five races.

Results: Martinsville 2 (Tums Fast Relief 500)

Denny Hamlin Follows Through On Guarantee

1. Kevin Harvick @ 93.773 mph over 113 laps (2nd in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 3rd. Drove up through the field.
2. Jeff Gordon @ 93.418 mph over 105 laps (14th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 20th. Wrecked by Kurt Busch (payback from Sonoma?)
3. A.J. Allmendinger @ 93.358 mph over 121 laps (6th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 12th. Quiet top fifteen.
4. Mark Martin @ 93.333 mph over 114 laps (15th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 2nd. Had best car at end of race. Came back from wreck.
5. Paul Menard @ 93.327 mph over 116 laps (10th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 13th.
6. Clint Bowyer @ 93.319 mph over 110 laps (3rd in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 38th. Wreck.
7. Juan Montoya @ 93.248 mph over 89 laps (28th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 19th.
8. Jamie McMurray @ 93.215 mph over 92 laps (7th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 11th.
9. Denny Hamlin @ 93.177 mph over 134 laps (12th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 1st. Didn't have the best car but fixed it throughout the race.
10. Martin Truex, Jr. @ 93.137 mph over 63 laps (8th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 29th.
11. Kurt Busch @ 93.131 mph over 141 laps (9th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 16th.
12. Sam Hornish, Jr. @ 93.115 mph over 103 laps (5th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 25th.
13. Ryan Newman @ 93.083 mph over 132 laps (17th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 30th. Wreck.
14. Greg Biffle @ 93.028 mph over 103 laps (16th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 33rd. Problems.
15. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. @ 93.005 mph over 116 laps (22nd in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 7th. Led a bunch of laps.
16. Bobby Labonte @ 92.994 mph over 107 laps (4th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 43rd. Got involved in wreck, couldn't fix it.
17. Carl Edwards @ 92.994 mph over 96 laps (20th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 8th. Quiet race.
18. Marcos Ambrose @ 92.979 mph over 100 laps (1st in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 34th. Led a bunch of laps early, then blew a tire.
19. Jeff Burton @ 92.973 mph over 145 laps (21st in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 9th. Led the most laps. Slipped back late.
20. Aric Almirola @ 92.940 mph over 113 laps (13th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 21st.
21. Matt Kenseth @ 92.940 mph over 93 laps (11th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 15th.
22. Jimmie Johnson @ 92.890 mph over 108 laps (29th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 5th. Typical Jimmie race at Martinsville.
23. Kyle Busch @ 92.840 mph over 119 laps (30th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 4th.
24. Kasey Kahne @ 92.810 mph over 66 laps (19th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 14th. Good showing for Red Bull.
25. Scott Speed @ 92.748 mph over 120 laps (25th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 23rd.
26. Elliott Sadler @ 92.737 mph over 64 laps (27th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 28th.
27. David Reutimann @ 92.705 mph over 140 laps (31st in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 27th. Good early but had problems.
28. Casey Mears @ 92.701 mph over 68 laps (32nd in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 40th.
29. Tony Stewart @ 92.492 mph over 109 laps (23rd in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 24th. Not the best car and had problems.
30. David Ragan @ 92.482 mph over 105 laps (26th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 17th.
31. Joey Logano @ 92.481 mph over 147 laps (18th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 6th. Another quiet one.
32. Regan Smith @ 92.357 mph over 102 laps (24th in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 31st. Got caught up in a wreck.
33. Brad Keselowski @ 92.324 mph over 88 laps (33rd in Happy Hour average speed)

Finished 10th. Best finish of the year for BK.

Predictions: Martinsville 2 (Post Happy Hour, Qualifying) (Tums Fast Relief 500)

RCR Cars Dominate Speed Charts Saturday

In late March, Denny Hamlin picked up the victory at his "home track". The race went eight laps longer than it was scheduled to, but Hamlin prevailed followed by Joey Logano, Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, and Martin Truex, Jr. To check out the results from this year's other race at Martinsville, click here. Denny Hamlin also won the race last year in October, with Jimmie Johnson, Juan Montoya, Kyle Busch, and Jeff Gordon rounding out the top five. For last year's fall Martinsville race results, click here. Hamlin started 19th and 17th in his past two wins at this track.

Jordan's Top Fifteen for the Bank of America 500:
Driver - Fantasy Price - Car - Starting Position

1. Denny Hamlin - $23.90 - #11 FedEx Express Toyota - Starts 1st

Hamlin hasn't finished worse than 12th in the past six races and that streak will continue Sunday at Martinsville (his home track). Denny is stellar here: he has won three of the past four races at "The Paperclip" and finished 2nd in the other race. He is riding a six race streak of top fives here and has an average career finish of 6.6. He starts on the pole and gets the first pit stall, which can be very important for track position. He wasn't amazing anybody on the speed charts but he was right there in average speed (9th). There is no way Hamlin won't make my roster this week. Note: if a driver wins from the pole, they receive 20 bonus points.
 

2. Jeff Gordon - $22.90 - #24 DuPont Chevrolet - Starts 11th

Gordon has a 15-race streak of top tens at Martinsville and I see no reason why it would end on Sunday. He was 2nd in average speed (although his Happy Hour average speed was 14th) and he was 2nd in ten-lap averages during Happy Hour. Jeff knows how to get around this track, amassing 32 top twelves in 35 career races and he brought the same car that he recently finished 6th with at New Hampshire.
 

3. Jimmie Johnson - $24.00 - #48 Lowe's Chevrolet - Starts 19th

It's hard (and stupid) to bet against Johnson and Hamlin at Martinsville (as well as Gordon). The 48 and the 11 have been the only winners here since 2006, with Johnson winning five of them and Hamlin three. Johnson hasn't finished outside of the top ten at "The Paperclip" in the past sixteen races and don't expect him to Sunday. He starts kind of far back, which is the reason for his 3rd-place ranking, but he had the fourth fastest ten-lap average in Happy Hour. Unless he gets caught up in an early wreck, a top five is pretty much a lock for Johnson.
 

4. Clint Bowyer - $17.50 - #33 BB&T Chevrolet - Starts 17th

Like Johnson, Clint has some cars to pass to make his way to the front, but the #33 looked stellar in practice Saturday (as did the entire RCR fleet). Bowyer ended up 6th on the average speed chart (3rd in Happy Hour ranking) and was in the top six in both ten-lap averages (3rd in Happy Hour). Once you get past the appalling stats from Hamlin, Gordon, and Johnson, you will notice that Bowyer isn't too bad at Martinsville. His career best finish here is 5th, but Sunday may be the day he improves that.
 

5. Ryan Newman - $18.60 - #39 Tornados Chevrolet - Starts 4th

"The Rocketman" has an average career finish at Martinsville of 13.4 and finished 4th here in the spring. He was in the top ten in both ten-lap averages and ended up 13th on the average speed chart. Newman has finished in the top ten in his past three races at Martinsville will be looking to get back on track after last week's mess. In the COT era, Newman has the fifth-best average finish at "The Paperclip" (thanks ifantasyrace.com)
 

6. Tony Stewart - $18.20 - #14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet - Starts 6th

"Smoke" is driving the same car that he almost won New Hampshire with in September (he ran out of fuel coming to the white flag). He was the last driver to win here aside from Hamlin and Johnson and has an average career finish of 12.6 at "The Paperclip". Don't let his low average speed ranking fool you: Stewart likes to do long runs during practice to see how his tires will react, which makes his average speed lower.
 

7. Jamie McMurray - $16.40 - #1 Bass Pro Shops/Tracker Chevrolet - Starts 9th

Jamie Mac is starting to get some consistency on a week-to-week basis. Over the past six races, he has the fourth-best average finish (10.3) and his lowest finish was 17th. He got the win at Charlotte last week and brought that momentum to Virginia. The 1 car placed 8th on the average speed chart and ended up sixth on the ten-lap average chart for Happy Hour. McMurray has finished in the top ten in three of his last four visits to "The Paperclip" and seems on track to make it four of five.
 

8. Juan Montoya - $15.40 - #42 Target Chevrolet - Starts 5th

As usual, I caution anybody who picks Montoya this week--he is simply inconsistent and very high risk. He finished 36th here in the spring (tire problem), but that was his only finish outside of the top 16 in his career at Martinsville (seven career races). He placed 7th on the average speed chart and is running the same car that finished 7th at Richmond. If you're feeling lucky, take a shot with Juan this week.
 

9. Kevin Harvick - $27.00 - #29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet - Starts 36th

If "Happy Harvick" makes your roster this week--which I see no reason why he would because of his price--you better hope that there isn't an early wreck. Qualifying is never a strong trait for Harvick and he showed it again this week. His car, though, like all the RCR cars this week, is fast. He was first in average speed and in the top five in both ten-lap averages. If he can make it to the front, Harvick could have a winning car, but it will take a lot of strategy and luck for that too happen. He finished 10th in the fall Martinsville race in 2009.
 

10. Mark Martin - $20.10 - #5 GoDaddy.com/eBay Motors Chevrolet - Starts 21st

Mark "The Kid" Martin is finally getting the finishes that we were used to in 2009: he has a five-race streak of top fifteens. He was 4th on the average practice speed chart and ended up 5th on the ten-lap average chart during Happy Hour. He has some cars to pass but he has done it before. Last year Martin finished 7th after rolling off the grid in 31st. He has an average career finish of 13.3 at "The Paperclip".
 

11. Jeff Burton - $21.80 - #31 Caterpillar Chevrolet - Starts 18th

RCR has their cars hooked up this week, placing all three of their cars in the top six in both practice sessions on Saturday. Burton ran the most laps of anyone in practice on Saturday, which is usually the case week in and week out. He has an average career finish at Martinsville of 14.8 with one win but hasn't finished better than 15th in his past four races here. Burton had a good car in the spring before a flat tire ruined his day. He is driving the same chassis that he finished 10th at Bristol with.
 

12. Carl Edwards - $20.70 - #99 Aflac Ford - Starts 7th

Cousin Carl finished 8th here in the spring, only his third top ten at Martinsville in twelve career races. However, those three career top tens here have come in the past four races at the track. Edwards was 7th in ten-lap average speed during Happy Hour but only 17th in overall average speed. He looks to be the best Ford this week.
 

13. Marcos Ambrose - $11.10 - #47 DG Country Million Sweep. Toyota - Starts 2nd

One of my sleepers of the week made me look good by almost getting the pole on Friday. Ambrose finished 11th here earlier in the year, and I always keep my eye on him at tracks where you need to save your brakes (which he is an expert at). He had the fastest average speed in Happy Hour and was 3rd on the ten-lap average chart during second practice. Marcos is a very good low-dollar option this week.
 

14. Paul Menard - $12.80 - #98 Energizer/Menards Ford - Starts 11th

Ranking fifth on the average speed chart, Menard does what he does best: look super fast during practice. Sometimes the speed carries over into the race, while other times it does not. Menard finished a career-best (at Martinsville) 14th in the spring race after starting 9th. With all the uncertainty going on at Richard Petty Motorsports, the 98 is a gamble this week, but a top fifteen wouldn't be surprising.
 

15. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - $17.10 - #88 Amp Energy/Nat. Guard Chevrolet - Starts 28th

Little E has a lot of cars to pass on Sunday, but he has done it before. In 2009 he finished 8th after starting 19th and in 2008 Jr finished 6th after starting 22nd. Martinsville is one of Jr's better racetracks, with a career average finish here of 14.1. In the spring race he finished 15th and he ended up 15th on the average practice speed chart (9th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour).
 

On The Outside Looking In:

Bobby Labonte: Labonte really impressed me last week with his 22nd place finish. It wasn't a great one, but it was surprising--he wasn't on my radar at all. When you can get that good of a finish with a very low dollar driver (he costs $8.50) it can make your roster a money winner. Labonte was 4th in happy hour average speed and 16th overall. He's in the 09 this weeks, which gets its engines from Hendrick.

A.J. Allmendinger: Allmendinger starts 15th and looked great in practice (3rd in average speed) but has finished 34th or worse in four of his six career starts here. The 'Dinger finished 9th here last fall after starting 16th and always seems to run better in the October race at Martinsville.

Aric Almirola: He's in Kasey Kahne's old ride and you could tell he wasn't used to it. He was terrible up until Happy Hour, where he was 9th on the grid (and 13th in average speed). He starts 35th, but if he doesn't get in a wreck is capable of a top 20 finish this week.

Don't Let Them Fool You:

Greg Biffle: The Biff has raced here 15 times and has come away with only two top tens (and an average finish of 22.3). He starts 3rd on Sunday and in 2008 started there and finished 12th. He was 14th in average speed and, even though he starts good, isn't the best option for his price ($22.20).

 

Kyle Busch: In the past five races at "The Paperclip", Rowdy has an average finish of 23.4. He starts 26th and has shown no speed so far (23rd in average speed). He wasn't happy with his car at all during practice and this isn't his best racetrack, so I would stay clear of Kyle this week.

 

Scott Speed: He starts 14th, but don't expect him to stay there long. He has raced at Martinsville four times but has never finished better than 30th. Speed was 25th on the average practice chart but it will take some luck for him to finish that high this week.