Starting Position Usually Means A Lot Here
Kurt Busch won here in May after starting on the outside pole. Jamie McMurray finished runner up followed by Kyle Busch, Mark Martin, and David Reutimann. Result's for May's race at Charlotte can be found by here. Kurt Busch also won this year's All-Star race after starting on the pole. Last October, Jimmie Johnson took the win at Charlotte after starting on the pole. Matt Kenseth, Kasey Kahne, Jeff Gordon, and Joey Logano rounded out the top five. For last year's Charlotte race results, click here.
My Preliminary Top Seven
for the Bank of America 500:
1. Kyle Busch - Rowdy has never won here but he has been dang good here recently. He hasn't always been good here, though. His first five races at Charlotte netted him an average finish of 33.6 and a best finish of 25th. He's turned that around since then. In the last eight races at Charlotte, Kyle Busch has only finished outside of the top eight once. There have been five different winners in the past five races at Charlotte, so is this the week Kyle finally wins here? His championship chances may be "over", but he's still a threat to win a race.
2. Jimmie Johnson - "The Champ" used to be the king of this place: from 2003 to 2005 Jimmie Johnson won five out of the six races won at Charlotte. With his drive for five going strongly, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see JJ in victory lane. He hasn't been super great here during his past few visits, though. Over the past five races at Charlotte, JJ has only two top tens and two finishes of 37th or worse.
3. Jeff Gordon - In 35 races at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Gordon has come home in the top ten in 20 of them (with a career average finish of 15.4). Over the past five races here, he has an average finish of 7.2, which is third best on the circuit (behind Kyle Busch and Kasey Kahne). Gordon has five wins here and his comeback finish last week at California showed that this team has the willpower to overcome problems--and valuable trait for winning the Chase.
4. Mark Martin - This team has been really strong the past few weeks and I see this continuing on into Charlotte. Martin has an average career finish of 15.7 here and finished 4th in the spring race. He is also only one of five drivers to finish in the top 20 in each of the past five races here, with an average finish of 12.4. The 5 team seems like it has finally turned things around after their disastrous first half, amassing three straight top fifteens (which is good considering two of the races were started in the back of the pack).
5. Kasey Kahne - I really picked a terrible time to state that Kahne shouldn't be on anyone's fantasy rosters until next year. He went out and picked up a top five at California and this week we are headed to one of his best tracks. Kasey has won at Charlotte three times and through thirteen career races, his average finish is 11.6. He has been on fire during the last five races here, amassing four top tens and an average finishing position of 5th (and a lowest finish of only 12th).
6. Joey Logano - "Sliced Bread" must have learned a thing or two about Charlotte from teammate Kyle Busch. In his short career, Logano has put up top tens in his first two career starts here and has completed every single lap. His average career finish here, albeit only over three races, is 9th and the worst he has started is 14th. He has led only two laps here, but Joey has shown that he can run with the big boys at Charlotte after getting a 5th-place finish here one year ago.
7. Matt Kenseth - This ranking is subject to change if Roush doesn't figure out their engine problems. Each team (beside David Ragan, who took himself out of the race) took a major blow to their championship chances at California but Kenseth was running the best all day until he blew up. Charlotte has been nice to Matt and he has finished in the top ten in half of his career races here (with an average finish of 15.4). He has been great recently, though: since 2008 he has put up an average finish of 14th and four top tens (in five races).
Underdogs of the Week:
David Reutimann - Without his terrible luck, Reutimann would have probably won another race this year, but the guy just can't catch a break. He should be happy to come to Charlotte, though. He has won here (albeit a rain-shortened affair) and finished in the top fifteen in four of the last five races here--with an average finish of 12.6. If he can stay out of trouble, Reutimann could be a very valuable fantasy option this week.
Brad Keselowski - Who has two top 20s in the past two races here (and his only two races here)? Brad Keselowski. He started 37th earlier this year at Charlotte and finished 20th and got a 12th-place finish here last year while running in Hendrick's #25 car. He hasn't done anything all season, so I'm not expecting anything great, but he will be someone to watch this weekend.
Sam Hornish, Jr. - Sam actually isn't as bad as you'd think he would be at Charlotte. Take away his 40th-place finish in 2009 and he has finished in the top 22 in every other race here, including a 13th-place effort in 2008. He finished 16th here in May and 17th last year, completing every lap in each race.
Don't Fool Yourself:
Kevin Harvick - I know this is Harvick's year to throw history out of the equation, but I can't look past his history at Charlotte. He has ran here 19 times and has three (count 'em--three) top tens. He hasn't finished in the top ten since 2003. Unless he turns his luck around here--which he has done all season--this could be the race that ruins Happy Harvick's championship chances.
Tony Stewart - He has an average career finish here of 13.4, which is good. But he has been average at best here lately. In the past five races, Smoke hasn't put up a top ten, and has only two in his past eleven races at Charlotte. He's running really well lately, so it may be time to break his unlucky streak here.
Jamie McMurray - Yes, I know he finished runner up to Kurt Busch in the May race. But that was a single flash of brilliance in the past eleven races at Charlotte for Jamie Mac. Since 2005 he has only three top tens and an average finish of 20.1. After his disappointing (does that even begin to explain it?) week in California, I will probably stay away from the #1 car this week.
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