Watch Out For The Underdogs This Week
Last year at Kansas, Tony Stewart grabbed the win after starting 5th. Gordon, Biffle, Montoya, and Hamlin rounded out the top 5. Results from last year's race can be found here. Richard Petty Motorsports stole the show during qualifying, placing Kasey Kahne and Paul Menard 1-2 on the starting grid. Starting lineups can be found here.
For a practice breakdown, click here!
Jordan's Top Fifteen for the Price Chopper 400:
Driver - Fantasy Price - Car - Starting Position
1. Jeff Gordon - $22.90 - #24 DuPont Chevrolet - Starts 3rd
I see no reason why the 24 shouldn't be on everyone's rosters this week. Jeff was top five in both practice sessions, 1st in happy hour average speed, starts on the second row, and absolutely loves this track. Counting out the 2006 race where he had a fuel pump issue, Gordon has finished in the top 13 in every career race here. With a very fast car, a good starting spot, and an average career finish of 8.9 at Kansas, look for the DuPont Chevy to break its winless record on Sunday. Gordon also looked good in terms of 10-lap averages in both practices.
2. Greg Biffle - $22.20 - #16 Sherwin Williams/3M Ford - Starts 5th
The Biff is just about as good at Kansas at Gordon is. He has an average career finish of 9.0 here and if you exclude his first race here, he's finished in the top 12 every race. In the previous three years, the 16 Ford has crossed the stripe 3rd, 3rd, and 1st. Like Gordon, Biffle starts up front and has a fast car: he ended up in the top 5 in both practice sessions and had an average practice speed of 3rd overall. Biffle hasn't finished better than 17th in the past four races, so it's not or never for this team to get back on track. Note: The 16 spun in first practice but I have seen no report that has mentioned any significant damage.
3. Matt Kenseth - $24.50 - #17 Crown Royal Black Ford - Starts 8th
Kansas is the type of track where Kenseth and the Roush crew typically succeed. Last week I was very high on the 17 and he disappointed me, so hopefully that doesn't happen again. When Kenseth starts near the front and is fast in practice, he has a car that is capable of winning the race. He ended up 4th in overall average practice speed and 3rd on the Happy Hour charts. Kenseth is either hit or miss at Kansas, so I exercise caution this week.
4. Jimmie Johnson - $24.00 - #48 Lowe's/Johns Manville Chevrolet - Starts 21st
It's going to get old hearing Jimmie Johnson's name every week, but until he gets on a bad streak he will continue to be in my top five. JJ put the 48 car in the top six in both practice sessions and ended up 10th in overall average speed (5th in Happy Hour average speed). Johnson's average finish the week after a win is 10.8 throughout this season. If you exclude his accident at Daytona after his win at Loudon, the average finish is 5.75 after a win. JJ does have a win here and in 2005 finished 6th after starting 22nd, so he can make his way through traffic to get the finish.
5. Kasey Kahne - $14.30 - #9 Budweiser Ford - Starts 1st
Kahne had 18 poles in his career before adding his 19th on Friday. Of those previous 18, five of them have turned into wins and Kasey has an average finish of 10.9 in those races. Kahne is starting to get the hang of Kansas with 2 of his last 3 races here turning into top tens. He looked less than average during practice on Saturday (32nd overall average practice speed) so that may make you shy away from him. However, his teammate Paul Menard has a super fast car (maybe even the fastest), so maybe Kasey was just working on little things to perfect his car? His practice speeds tell me not to pick him, but with that low of price and a pole position, combined with his teammates' fast practice speeds, it will be hard for me not to include Kahne on my roster this week.
6. Paul Menard - $12.80 - #98 Zecol/Menards Ford - Starts 2nd
Menard has a fast car this week and after posting his second-best finish of the season last week, has some momentum coming into a track type where he has found success this season (10th at Chicago). Menard has been fast in both 10-lap averages, 1st in overall average speed, and fourth in Happy Hour average speed, and ended up sixth on the Happy Hour practice chart. If Menard can get the finish, he will be a very valuable pick this week for his price, freeing up cap to get a high-dollar driver.
7. Carl Edwards - $20.70 - #99 Aflac Ford - Starts 31st
Every week there is something that makes me not want to pick Edwards. This week he starts in 31st and I know how hard it is to come up through the field here. He was in the top ten in both practice sessions, however, so he has the speed to get to the front. With as fast as his teammates are, this ranking is probably a little too low, but his poor starting position worries me. Cousin Carl finished 10th last year and has an average finish of 2.3 in three races on intermediate non-concrete races (Atlanta, Michigan, Chicago). He also has 9 top tens in his last 11 starts, with a worst finish of 12th.
8. Kevin Harvick - $27.00 - #29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet - Starts 24th
This team really needs to start getting better at qualifying. Happy Harvick didn't blow anybody away in practice (22nd overall average practice speed) but he has been doing that all year: no one expects much from him and then by the end of the race, he's in the top ten. Kevin has never finished better than 6th at Kansas, but he has done that three times (with an average starting position of 25.7 in those three races). He was in the top five in the ten-lap averages for each practice.
9. Tony Stewart - $18.20 - #14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet - Starts 14th
The defending winner of this race is bringing back the same car (Chassis No. 14-515) that won at Atlanta earlier in the year and finished 2nd at Pocono. Like Harvick, Smoke doesn't like to show his hand in practice and showed that again this week, ending up 28th in average practice speeds. Stewart has two wins and six top tens at Kansas with an average career finish of 13.2.
10. David Reutimann - $14.80 - #00 Aaron's Dream Machine Toyota - Starts 16th
Chicago is the track that is most similar to Kansas, and the most recent winner there would be...Reutty! The double-zero also finished 8th here a year ago. He ended up 4th in the first Saturday practice and 11th in Happy Hour, but had the 5th best average practice speed in the second session. Reutimann was also 2nd in 10-lap average during today's first practice.
11. Clint Bowyer - $17.50 - #33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet - Starts 27th
Earlier this week Clint admitted his chances of winning the championship were over but it has looked like he has a pretty good car this week. He was 8th in both 10-lap averages on Saturday and was in the top eleven in both practice sessions in terms of fastest one lap. With an average finish of 11th at Kansas, I see Bowyer finishing right around there this week.
12. Kyle Busch - $26.20 - #18 M&M's Toyota - Starts 19th
Kyle's teammate, Logano, looks very fast and Shrub doesn't look to far behind. He placed 8th in overall average practice speeds and was in the top five in the top-lap averages for each practice session today. Kyle hasn't had a great history at Kansas, so I wouldn't pick him this week (especially with how much he costs). He has only one top ten finish here in six races. Kyle finished 5th at Atlanta with this chassis (No. 274).
13. Elliott Sadler - $10.80 - #19 Stanley/Susan G Komen for the Cure Ford - Starts 15th
Let's not forget the third car in the Richard Petty Motorsports stable. I usually watch Sadler on these types of tracks because these are arguably his best. He qualified 15th and was 12th in average practice speeds in Happy Hour. Sadler has two top tens in his last three Kansas starts and is driving chassis No. 282, which got a ninth place finish at Michigan this year. Sadler is worth the risk this week and will free up valuable cap space for higher-dollar drivers. Plus, who can go against the pink car?
14. Kurt Busch - $21.50 - #2 Miller Lite Dodge - Starts 9th
His average practice speeds look good (6th overall and 8th in Happy Hour) but his history here scares me: he hasn't had a top ten since 2004. Kurt has an average career finish of 19.7 here and finished 11th last year after starting 39th. He paced Saturday's first practice and ended up 13th in Happy Hour.
15. David Ragan - $13.20 - #6 UPS Ford - Starts 10th
Like I said, go with the underdogs this week. Ragan has been on my radar this entire week, as Kansas is the type of track where he can actually muster up a good finish. He started 12th and finished 8th in 2008 here and at the last three non-concrete intermediate tracks he has finished 12th, 11th, and 19th. Also, he was 10th in Happy Hour and 9th in second practice. Roush looks good this week and Ragan may be a surprise for everyone.
On The Outside Looking In:
Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: Kansas is like Michigan, which is one of Jr's best tracks. He was quick in second practice and 12th in average speed overall. He has four top tens at Kansas in nine starts. This chassis (No. 88-599) finished 7th at Michigan and 8th at Texas.
Jamie McMurray: Jamie Mac started his career at Kansas with two top ten finishes, but hasn't been able to find success after that. His car has, though. This chassis (#1006) got the pole at Chicaco and Darlington this year and posted top five finishes at each race. McMurray was 8th in Happy Hour and had the 10th best average speed during it.
Denny Hamlin: He finished 5th here last year but other than that race he has been dismal at Kansas. His teammates are good and his average practice speed wasn't terrible (14th).
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