My opinion: don't waste your time this week trying to research and predict a perfect roster. One lap can ruin it and it's pretty much all luck at Talladega and Daytona. I still think this will be a pretty boring race up until the last five laps. Kevin Harvick won here in April and has looked impressive at all of the restrictor plate racetracks this year. Click here for the finishing order at Talladega in April.
Jordan's Top Ten for the Amp Energy Juice 500:
Driver - Fantasy Price - Car - Starting Position
1. Kevin Harvick - $27.00 - #29 Realtree/Shell-Pennzoil Chevrolet - Starts 14th
How can you bet against Happy this week? He's been the master at restrictor plate races this year with two wins and a lowest finish of seventh. He's in the same chassis this week that he won the Bud Shootout at Daytona with and it was also the chassis he piloted to the win at Talladega in April.
2. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - $17.10 - #88 National Guard Chevrolet - Starts 6th
Little E has three straight top thirteens at 'Dega and had a good run last week at Martinsville. With that momentum--as well as this being his best track--I see Jr challenging for the win this week. It will give Jr Nation a chance to cheer, probably their last time to do so until Daytona next February. He's racing the same chassis that finished 2nd in the Daytona 500 this year.
3. Mark Martin - $20.10 - #5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet - Starts 30th
One thing I have learned about Mark Martin is this: when he tells you he has a good car, he has a car that could challenge for the win. When they interviewed him after his qualifying run and he said this car--which has a brand new chassis--is very fast. After Martin said he had the best car he has ever had at Martinsville last week, I think he has some confidence coming into 'Dega. He finished 5th here in April.
4. Jeff Burton - $21.80 - #31 Cat Financial Chevrolet - Starts 5th
Jeff has finished in the top twelve in four of his last five races at Talladega. The chassis he is piloting this week is the same one that he finished 5th with at Daytona in July. I'm usually not a big fan of Burton fantasy wise but I see him doing good this week, and he is on my tentative roster.
5. Jamie McMurray - $16.40 - #1 Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet - Starts 12th
Like Harvick, Jamie Mac was one of the favorites coming into this week. Earnhardt-Ganassi always brings good engines to the restrictor plate tracks and this Chevrolet has the same chassis that finished 2nd at Talladega in the spring. McMurray has an average finish of 10.4 over the past seven races this year (he's finally being consistent) and I see him improving that this week.
6. Jimmie Johnson - $24.00 - #48 Lowe's Chevrolet - Starts 19th
Johnson isn't great at Talladega in the spring race, but when it comes to the fall race, he gets the finish. In his last three starts here in the fall, he has an average finish of 5.6. Johnson finished 6th at Talladega in April. Hendrick is elite when it comes to their engine package and I like three of the four in the stable to be up front in the end.
7. Kurt Busch - $21.50 - #2 Miller Lite Dodge - Starts 3rd
Finally a car other than a Chevrolet makes the list. Kurt is always a threat at restrictor plate races, although I think he is better at Daytona. His career average finish here is 12.8 and Busch finished 8th at Talladega in April (and is running the same chassis this week from that race).
8. Juan Montoya - $15.40 - #42 Target Chevrolet - Starts 1st
Montoya will either finish up front--like his 3rd place finish at 'Dega in April--or he will wreck. They brought the same chassis from April and this particular one has three top ten finishes in six races ran. Juan has Earnhardt-Ganassi engines, so you know he has the horsepower, but there is always a risk when you pick him.
9. David Ragan - $13.20 - #6 UPS "We Love Logistics" Ford - Starts 28th
This is probably one of two racetracks that Ragan is a good pick. He has an average finish of 13.3 at Talladega in his career and has finished outside of the top seventeen only once in seven career starts here. In the past five races at 'Dega, David has an average finish of 8.4.
10. Clint Bowyer - $17.50 - #33 BB&T Chevrolet - Starts 2nd
Bowyer has five top twelves in the last six races at Talladega and finished 7th here in April after starting 14th. He's piloting the same chassis that finished 4th in the Daytona 500 and has the power to get a good finish this week. If he doesn't get into a wreck he will be a good pick.
On The Outside Looking In:
Brad Keselowski - BK got his first career win here in the 09 car last year and followed that up with an 8th place finish in the fall race. He got his first top ten of the season last week at Martinsville and with a little luck, he could get his second on Sunday.
Bobby Labonte - The 09 usually gets a good finish on the restrictor plate races (it's equipped with Hendrick engines). Like I said before, Keselowski got his win in the 09 car and Mike Bliss finished 10th at Talladega in the spring race in it.
Scott Speed - He has raced here only three times but has two top fifteens to his credit, including a 5th-place finish in last year's spring race. He finished 15th in April's race and hasn't finished worse than 24th in his past four races this year (which is good for him). He finished 10th in the July race at Daytona.
Don't Let Them Fool You:
How can you bet against Happy this week? He's been the master at restrictor plate races this year with two wins and a lowest finish of seventh. He's in the same chassis this week that he won the Bud Shootout at Daytona with and it was also the chassis he piloted to the win at Talladega in April.
2. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - $17.10 - #88 National Guard Chevrolet - Starts 6th
Little E has three straight top thirteens at 'Dega and had a good run last week at Martinsville. With that momentum--as well as this being his best track--I see Jr challenging for the win this week. It will give Jr Nation a chance to cheer, probably their last time to do so until Daytona next February. He's racing the same chassis that finished 2nd in the Daytona 500 this year.
3. Mark Martin - $20.10 - #5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet - Starts 30th
One thing I have learned about Mark Martin is this: when he tells you he has a good car, he has a car that could challenge for the win. When they interviewed him after his qualifying run and he said this car--which has a brand new chassis--is very fast. After Martin said he had the best car he has ever had at Martinsville last week, I think he has some confidence coming into 'Dega. He finished 5th here in April.
4. Jeff Burton - $21.80 - #31 Cat Financial Chevrolet - Starts 5th
Jeff has finished in the top twelve in four of his last five races at Talladega. The chassis he is piloting this week is the same one that he finished 5th with at Daytona in July. I'm usually not a big fan of Burton fantasy wise but I see him doing good this week, and he is on my tentative roster.
5. Jamie McMurray - $16.40 - #1 Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet - Starts 12th
Like Harvick, Jamie Mac was one of the favorites coming into this week. Earnhardt-Ganassi always brings good engines to the restrictor plate tracks and this Chevrolet has the same chassis that finished 2nd at Talladega in the spring. McMurray has an average finish of 10.4 over the past seven races this year (he's finally being consistent) and I see him improving that this week.
6. Jimmie Johnson - $24.00 - #48 Lowe's Chevrolet - Starts 19th
Johnson isn't great at Talladega in the spring race, but when it comes to the fall race, he gets the finish. In his last three starts here in the fall, he has an average finish of 5.6. Johnson finished 6th at Talladega in April. Hendrick is elite when it comes to their engine package and I like three of the four in the stable to be up front in the end.
7. Kurt Busch - $21.50 - #2 Miller Lite Dodge - Starts 3rd
Finally a car other than a Chevrolet makes the list. Kurt is always a threat at restrictor plate races, although I think he is better at Daytona. His career average finish here is 12.8 and Busch finished 8th at Talladega in April (and is running the same chassis this week from that race).
8. Juan Montoya - $15.40 - #42 Target Chevrolet - Starts 1st
Montoya will either finish up front--like his 3rd place finish at 'Dega in April--or he will wreck. They brought the same chassis from April and this particular one has three top ten finishes in six races ran. Juan has Earnhardt-Ganassi engines, so you know he has the horsepower, but there is always a risk when you pick him.
9. David Ragan - $13.20 - #6 UPS "We Love Logistics" Ford - Starts 28th
This is probably one of two racetracks that Ragan is a good pick. He has an average finish of 13.3 at Talladega in his career and has finished outside of the top seventeen only once in seven career starts here. In the past five races at 'Dega, David has an average finish of 8.4.
10. Clint Bowyer - $17.50 - #33 BB&T Chevrolet - Starts 2nd
Bowyer has five top twelves in the last six races at Talladega and finished 7th here in April after starting 14th. He's piloting the same chassis that finished 4th in the Daytona 500 and has the power to get a good finish this week. If he doesn't get into a wreck he will be a good pick.
On The Outside Looking In:
Brad Keselowski - BK got his first career win here in the 09 car last year and followed that up with an 8th place finish in the fall race. He got his first top ten of the season last week at Martinsville and with a little luck, he could get his second on Sunday.
Bobby Labonte - The 09 usually gets a good finish on the restrictor plate races (it's equipped with Hendrick engines). Like I said before, Keselowski got his win in the 09 car and Mike Bliss finished 10th at Talladega in the spring race in it.
Scott Speed - He has raced here only three times but has two top fifteens to his credit, including a 5th-place finish in last year's spring race. He finished 15th in April's race and hasn't finished worse than 24th in his past four races this year (which is good for him). He finished 10th in the July race at Daytona.
Don't Let Them Fool You:
Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is either hit or miss at 'Dega. He has started nine races here and has finished in the top twenty only three times (all top fives). Hamlin is on a streak and finished 4th earlier this year at 'Dega, but this could be the race he loses the championship.
Jeff Gordon - Gordon is always a favorite when it comes to superspeedways, and usually disappoints. His best finish at Talladega since 2008 (five races) is 19th. He has had problems in the past three races and I don't see him getting a good finish this week.
Tony Stewart - "Smoke" just isn't having a very good Chase. From running out of fuel at Loudon, pit problems at Dover, and a blown tire last week in Martinsville, luck just hasn't been on this team's side. He has also only finished in the top fifteen once at 'Dega in his past five races.
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