In late March, Denny Hamlin picked up the victory at his "home track". The race went eight laps longer than it was scheduled to, but Hamlin prevailed followed by Joey Logano, Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, and Martin Truex, Jr. To check out the results from this year's other race at Martinsville, click here. Denny Hamlin also won the race last year in October, with Jimmie Johnson, Juan Montoya, Kyle Busch, and Jeff Gordon rounding out the top five. For last year's fall Martinsville race results, click here. Hamlin started 19th and 17th in his past two wins at this track.
My Preliminary Top Seven
for the Tums Fast Relief 500:
1. Denny Hamlin - You can't bet against this guy at his home track. In the past five races at "The Paperclip", Hamlin has racked up 3 wins and has finished in the top five in each race (with an average finish of 2nd). Denny has always been good here. He has visited Martinsville ten times in his career, and nine of those races ended up with top ten finishes. He has an average career finish here of 6.6 and if he's going to gain any points on Johnson, this may be the week to do it (although Jimmie is pretty good here, too).
2. Jimmie Johnson - Surprise, surprise. Jimmie Johnson is riding a 16-race streak of top tens at Martinsville with six wins here. Sixteen races! He hasn't finished outside of the top ten at Martinsville since late 2002. He has only finished outside of the top ten in one race since 2002 (his rookie year) and that was his very first race here. Even if JJ starts 43rd on Sunday, he'd probably still be a good pick this week--he's just that good.
3. Jeff Gordon - It's basically a three-way tie for the best driver at Martinsville. Take your pick. Like Hamlin and Johnson, Gordon has been stellar at Martinsville for a while. He may not be on Jimmie's level, but Gordon has a 15-race streak of top tens at Martinsville and seven career wins here. In 35 career races at Martinsville, Jeff Gordon has finished outside of the top twelve only three times. His average career finish here is 6.7 and while he didn't have the best finish last week at Charlotte, this race is at the perfect track to turn it all around.
4. Clint Bowyer - The second hottest driver over the past seven races is arguably the best driver at Martinsville on the RCR team. Bowyer didn't quite get the hang of this place in his first two trips here, but in the last seven races at Martinsville he has finished in the top eleven six times. Clint has also finished every lap ran here in those seven races. His championship hopes have been over for awhile, but that doesn't mean he can't go for the win.
5. Ryan Newman - After hitting the wall early next week, I think Newman will come into Martinsville on a mission to get the 13th place in points back (I think he wins $1 million if he does). The Rocketman has finished in the top ten in his past three visits to Martinsville and finished fourth here this spring. He has never won here but does have six top fives here in seventeen career starts.
6. Mark Martin - I have been high on Martin the past few weeks, and while he hasn't been disappointing, he hasn't quite finished where I would have liked. He's on a streak of four straight top 15s--his longest streak of the year--and I see no reason why he shouldn't be able to continue that this week (although hopefully with a top ten). In his long career, Mark "The Kid" Martin has raced at Martinsville a whopping 45 times, amassing 23 top tens and two wins (and an average finish of 13.3). It seems lately that Mark has had the cars to contend, but just can't get the finishes. Is this his week to shine?
7. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - I'm sticking with Hendrick this week. Believe it or not, Martinsville is Jr's 5th-best track. He has an average finish of 14th here and from 2002 to 2004, Little E put together a string of five straight top five finishes. He hasn't been great the past two races here (15th and 29th), but since 2008 he has an average finish of 12th and four top fifteens (three of them top tens). Hendrick Motorsports has been the best team at Martinsville over the past five races, with an average finish of 7.2 among the four drivers.
Underdogs of the Week:
Aric Almirola - Almirola is taking over for Reed Sorenson in the 83 Red Bull Toyota last week. If Red Bull Racing brings another new batch of cars, keep an eye on Almirola. He has been having a lot of success in the Truck Series this year and hasn't looked too shabby driving Jr's car in the Nationwide Series. Red Bull racing had pretty good cars last week, with both Sorenson and Speed creeping around the top ten late in the race.
Brad Keselowski - BK has raced here only once in a Sprint Cup car (in March), and finished 12th after starting 30th. He has done nothing to impress this year (zero top tens), though, so don't expect anything great. He's moving to the Blue Deuce next year, so he's going to have to start getting the finishes sometime or else his seat will start to heat up pretty quick.
Marcos Ambrose - Whenever the series races at a track where it is necessary to save your breaks, Ambrose is always a dark horse pick for me--the guy is a master at it. He has raced here only three times in his career, and while he doesn't qualify well (average start of 29.7) he does much better in the race (average finish of 17.3). Ambrose finished 11th here in the spring.
Don't Fool Yourself:
Kasey Kahne - I'm back to sticking a fork in Kahne until next season. Rumors have begun to spread that Kasey is "disgusted" with his team and their effort and he reportedly left Charlotte last week after his crash because of it (although news agencies said it was because he was "sick"). He hasn't had a top ten at Martinsville since his 7th place finish in 2006 and has finished in the top ten here only twice in thirteen career races.
Kyle Busch - Arguably the best driver in the Series hasn't been very good at Martinsville lately. In the past five races he has an average finish of 23.4 and only one top twenty (a 4th last year). He wasn't very happy about his 2nd place finish last week, and I don't think he will be very happy with his finish this week, either.
Jeff Burton - Burton is nothing special when it comes to Martinsville. It took him seven races at the beginning of his career to crack the top ten (a win in 1997) and he hasn't finished in the top ten since 2008 here (and only twice since 2006).
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