One thing I hate about the Chase: how conservative every driver gets in the final ten races. All the Chase drivers know that they need to be consistent to win the championship, so none of them take chances. All of the non-Chasers are too scared to ruin someone's championship hopes by causing a wreck, so they don't run as hard. They're all too conservative. Yes, Talladega is known for big wrecks, and "The Big One" might happen this Sunday, but it wouldn't surprise me if it doesn't.
Kevin Harvick and Jamie McMurray finished 1-2 at Talledega in April. Click here for the results from the last Talladega race. Happy Harvick also won at Daytona in July and finished 7th in the Daytona 500 in February.
My Preliminary Top Seven
for the Amp Energy Juice 500:
1. Kevin Harvick - Harvick is coming off a career best finish at Martinsville and is well within the championship hunt. In the three other restrictor plate races this year, Harvick has two wins and a seventh in the other. He won here in April and has finished outside of the top ten only once since mid-September. "Happy" is on a roll and has the best average finish at Talladega between the top three in the points (15.5).
2. Jamie McMurray - Jamie Mac has been quietly consistent over the past two months. Over the last seven races, McMurray has an average finish of 10.4, fourth-best in the series. He won the Daytona 500 and narrowly finished behind Harvick at Talladega in April. McMurray has shown this year that he is a force to be reckoned with at the superspeedways--this year at least.
3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Little E has five wins here and an average career finish of 14th. He has only three top tens in his last eleven races here, but that doesn't worry me very much. He's coming off of a top ten at Martinsville and led some laps, which probably gave him so confidence. Jr is always a popular pick when the Sprint Cup series comes to either Talladega or Daytona.
4. Mark Martin - In Martin's long career, he has visited Talladega 45 times and has amassed 23 top tens and an average finish of 16.1. As I said last week, the 5 car is getting on a roll and coming back into 2009 form. They have five straight top 15s and had one of the best cars at the end of the race last week in Martinsville but finished 2nd. He finished 5th at Talladega in April.
5. Kurt Busch - Kurt is always a contender when it comes to Talladega and Daytona. The Blue Deuce finished 8th in the first Talladega race and 7th in the July race at Daytona. He has a career average finish of 12.8 in nineteen races here. Busch hasn't been very good in the past month, so this ranking may change on Saturday, but for now I see him getting a top five.
6. Jeff Burton - In the past five races at 'Dega, Burton has an average finish of 12.6, which is second best in the series. He has never won here and only has four top fives in 33 career races, but he has been getting better recently and arguably had the best car last week in Martinsville. Is he mad about not winning one of the Martinsville races this year (he had the best car in both races in some people's mind)? He may be able to learn something from Harvick and get the finish Sunday.
7. David Ragan - Surprised? Don't be. Ragan has an average career finish of 13.3 and has finished outside of the top 17 only once in his seven career races here. In the past five races at Talladega, guess who has the best average finish (of 8.4)? David Ragan. He finished 6th at 'Dega in April and has been on a "roll" (for him) recently: three finishes of 17th or better in his past four races.
Underdogs of the Week:
Scott Speed - He has raced here only three times but has two top fifteens to his credit, including a 5th-place finish in last year's spring race (he didn't run the fall race). He finished 15th in April's race and hasn't finished worse than 24th in his past four races this year (which is good for him). He finished 10th in the July race at Daytona.
Whoever is in the 09 car - I'm not sure who will be racing the 09 car this week, but they will be someone to watch for this week. Remember, Keselowski got his win at Talladega running the 09 car and Mike Bliss piloted it to a 10th-place finish in the spring race this year and Bobby Labonte got a 16th-place finish with this car at Daytona in July.
David Reutimann - Reutty finished 14th at the April Talladega race, 5th in the Daytona 500, and 11th in the July race at Daytona. If he doesn't get in a wreck or have bad luck, which has been the story of his season, he could get a good finish this week.
Don't Fool Yourself:
Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is either hit or miss at 'Dega. He has started nine races here and has finished in the top twenty only three times (all top fives). Hamlin is on a streak and finished 4th earlier this year at 'Dega, but this could be the race he loses the championship.
Jeff Gordon - Gordon is always a favorite when it comes to superspeedways, and usually disappoints. His best finish at Talladega since 2008 (five races) is 19th. He has had problems in the past three races and I don't see him getting a good finish this week.
Tony Stewart - "Smoke" just isn't having a very good Chase. From running out of fuel at Loudon, pit problems at Dover, and a blown tire last week in Martinsville, luck just hasn't been on this team's side. He has also only finished in the top fifteen once at 'Dega in his past five races.
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