Has Roush Fixed Their Engine Problem?
Earlier this year at Charlotte, Kurt Busch won the All-Star Race and then went on to capture the flat at the Coca-Cola 600 the following week. Jamie McMurray finished 2nd, followed by Kyle Busch, Mark Martin, and David Reutimann. Results of the Coca-Cola 600 can be found by clicking here. The Banking 500 at Charlotte last October was won by Jimmie Johnson (from the pole), with Matt Kenseth, Kasey Kahne, Jeff Gordon, and then-rookie Joey Logano rounding out the top five. For the results to last year's October race at Charlotte, click here.
Jordan's Top Fifteen for the Bank of America 500:
Driver - Fantasy Price - Car - Starting Position
Driver - Fantasy Price - Car - Starting Position
1. Kyle Busch - $26.20 - #18 M&M's Toyota - Starts 6th
Rowdy has never won at Charlotte, but he has the car this week to get his first. His championship chances may be "over"--or so he thinks--but his chances of winning aren't. Kyle looked really good in practice, placing 2nd on the average speeds chart (and he was the fastest of all cars in terms of ten-lap average in Happy Hour). He has only finished outside of the top eight once in the past eight races here, with an average finish of 4.8 since 2008. Look for Kyle Busch to run up front all night and challenge for the win at the end.
2. Mark Martin - $20.10 - #5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet - Starts 4th
Mark "The Kid" Martin has had, arguably, one of the fastest cars in each of the past three races. He started in the rear of the field at both Dover and Kansas, netting 12th- and 14th-place in those races and finally broke out with a 6th place finish last week at California after starting 6th. He starts on the second row, which is critical to success at Charlotte. However, that may not be a good thing. Mark has started in the top five in six races this year and hasn't finished in the top ten in any of those races. I'm going to take my chances with Martin this week, though. He has a super fast car (5th in average speed and in the top five in both ten-lap average charts) and finished 4th here in May. Mark Martin is beginning to look like his 2009 self.
3. Carl Edwards - $20.70 - #99 Aflac Ford - Starts 2nd
Cousin Carl was extremely happy with his car after Happy Hour and for good reason: he paced the practice in both fastest lap as well as average speed throughout. He ranked 4th overall in terms of average speed. Carl hasn't been very good at Charlotte in his past two trips (finishes of 16th and 39th) but has an average career finish of 13.2 here. Before last week's disappointing finish, Edwards had a streak of top twelves that dated back to July. Is this the week we finally see a backflip?
4. A.J. Allmendinger - $12.00 - #43 Wix Filters Ford - Starts 3rd
Week after week, the 'Dinger gets the finish and makes you wonder if he will have a breakout season in 2011. He was in the top five in both ten-lap average charts and ranked 12th in average speed (8th in Happy Hour). A.J. has looked very good recently--with an average finish of 11.8 over the last five races--and finished a career-best 14th at Charlotte in May. This ranking may be a little high, but I think Allmendinger will have a very good race on Saturday night.
5. Greg Biffle - $22.20 - #16 3M Scotch-Blue Painter's Tape Ford - Starts 22nd
There are two major reasons The Biff isn't higher on my list: his starting position and the engine problems that Roush suffered from last week in California. The latter problem seems to have been fixed, though, as all of the Roush-Fenway cars looked pretty fast Friday. Biffle was first in terms of ten-lap average speed in first practice, and ranked second in Happy Hour behind Kyle Busch. He was seventh in average practice speed, as well. Greg hasn't finished in the top ten at Charlotte since 2008, and hasn't had the greatest luck during his season lately (one top fifteen in his last six races) but he definitely has the speed to get up front.
6. Paul Menard - $12.80 - #98 Schrock Cabinetry/Menards Ford - Starts 5th
Paul Menard, you may remember, finished 8th at Charlotte in May. Well, he's bringing back that same exact car and it looks like it is picking up right where it left off. He went out Thursday night and posted a top five starting position and backed that up with fast practice speeds. He was sixth in average speed (4th in Happy Hour) and in the top ten in both ten-lap average charts. Will this be Menard's breakthrough race where he finally gets the win? I doubt it, but a top ten is a near certainty (in my opinion). Two of the last three races have seen the 98 car finish in the top ten, as Menard is starting to get the hang of racing in the Sprint Cup series.
7. Kasey Kahne - $14.30 - #9 Budweiser Ford - Starts 25th
Kasey Kahne is pretty good at Charlotte. He has three wins and a career average finish of 11.6. He starts in the middle of the pack, so he has some cars to pass, but he has the speed to do it. He was in the top five in both practice sessions and ranked 10th in average speed (6th in Happy Hour). Kasey usually starts inside of the top ten at Charlotte (and doesn't finish good when he doesn't) but is carrying momentum with him after his top five at California last week.
8. Kurt Busch - $21.50 - #2 Miller Lite Dodge - Starts 15th
The elder Busch brother hit the wall in Happy Hour, but when he got back on the track it didn't seem like it affected the car very much. He is going for the sweep at Charlotte, after winning the All-Star Race and Coca-Cola 600 here in May. He practiced in the top five in both practice sessions, but didn't have the average speed (16th) nor did he place in the top ten in the ten-lap average rankings. Kurt has looked great at the 1.5-mile tracks this year but is either hit or miss at Charlotte: he has an average career finish of 20th here.
9. Jimmie Johnson - $24.00 - #48 Lowe's Chevrolet - Starts 10th
I'm not very impressed with the two Hendrick boys from California this week, although I'm sure I will be completely wrong. Neither looked very good in practice and Johnson placed only 21st in average speed. You can't argue with Johnson's history here, though. He has won here six times and has a career average finish here of 10.2. Johnson did finish 37th here in May, though, and I--for one--will be hoping he gets a similar result on Saturday to spice this Chase up a bit.
10. Jeff Gordon - $22.90 - #24 DuPont Chevrolet - Starts 1st
When Gordon got the pole on Thursday, I started to think he was nearly a lock for my roster. However, throughout the practice sessions on Friday, I became less and less impressed with the 24 car. He didn't look impressive at all (ranking 32nd and 27th) and ended up 25th on the average speed chart. After last week's resurgence at the end of the race, I won't count Gordon out, but I don't see him dominating the race on Saturday by any means. If you do think he will win, though, remember that if a driver wins from the pole they get an extra 20 points.
11. Denny Hamlin - $23.90 - #11 FedEx Ground Toyota - Starts 23rd
Hamlin, like Carl Edwards, was super happy with his car after Happy Hour, stating that the car was as best as it has been all weekend. Will he be as happy on Saturday night, though? We will find out. He starts father back than I like, but his average practice speed ranking speaks for itself: he was 3rd overall and 3rd in Happy Hour as well. He has only finished in the top ten in one of the past seven races at Charlotte, so I'll rank him just outside of the top ten this week.
12. Joey Logano - $15.90 - #20 The Home Depot Toyota - Starts 12th
"Sliced Bread" has the best average finish of any driver at Charlotte, albeit coming from only three career starts. However, he has impressed many in those few starts: he has two top tens (including a top five) and an average finish of 9th in three races here. All three Gibbs cars placed in the top fourteen in average speed (Logano's ranking) and the Gibbs team is second in terms of average finish at Charlotte since 2008 (behind Stewart-Haas).
13. Ryan Newman - $18.60 - #39 Haas Automation Chevrolet - Starts 11th
Flyin' Ryan has an average finish of 12.8 at Charlotte since 2008 and is on a pretty nice streak as of late as well: dating back to the August race at Bristol, Newman has finished in the top eleven in each of the seven races. This ranking is probably too low but neither him nor Tony Stewart have looked very good in practice. The Rocketman was 8th and 12th in the practice sessions and ended up 20th on the average speed charts.
14. Kevin Harvick - $27.00 - #29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet - Starts 24th
I told you to stay away from Harvick this week and he has done nothing to change my mind thus far. He qualified in the 20s yet again and ended up 18th on the average speed chart (16th in Happy Hour). Again, "Happy" Harvick hasn't finished in the top ten since 2003 and has only three top tens in nineteen races at Charlotte. With Johnson not looking too great this week, a top fifteen may be fine for Kevin, but if Johnson gets a top five, Harvick's championship chances may go down the drain on Saturday night.
15a. Matt Kenseth - $24.50 - #17 Crown Royal Black Ford - Starts 17th
15b. Tony Stewart - $18.20 - #14 Old Spice Showtime Chevrolet - Starts 29th
This 15th-place ranking was a toss up between Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart, so I decided to just make it a tie. Both were pretty low on the average speed chart (26th and 27th, respectfully) and were right next to each other in each of the practice sessions. In Friday's first practice, Stewart ranked 17th while Kenseth ranked 18th. In Happy Hour, Smoke ranked 32nd while Matt ended up 31st. I give Kenseth the slight advantage over Stewart, mainly due to his recent races at Charlotte. The 17 has finished in the top ten in four of the last five Charlotte races while Smoke has had only two top tens in his last eleven Charlotte starts.
On The Outside Looking In:
Reed Sorenson: I saw Sorenson put up a 7th place qualifying and almost immediately thought it was a fluke. Good thing I watched practice. ESPN announcers noted that Red Bull is bringing something new to the track this week that they will debut next year. So far, it seems to have worked. In addition to the good starting spot, Sorenson ended up second in Happy Hour and 8th on the average speed chart. I'm not expecting a great race (because it is Reed Sorenson) but he does have two top sixteens in the past five races.
Marcos Ambrose: Ambrose hasn't been very good here at all (average finish of 28.0 in three races) but his practice speeds looked alright (15th in average speed) and starts 14th. Usually Ambrose can't finish, so don't expect much, but he may be a surprise this week.
David Reutimann: Reutty has three top 20s here in the past five races--including his win in the rain-shortened race--and the 00 starts 16th. He was 13th in average practice speed, and his teammate looked really quick, but will they be able to pull out a decent finish? Reutimann has a better chance than Truex, Jr. at Charlotte.
Don't Let Them Fool You:
Martin Truex, Jr.: Truex once again had the fastest average speed, but that usually doesn't mean much with him. He has consistently ranked up front on the charts throughout the season but never shows up during the race. He starts 13th and was in the top ten in both practice sessions, so if you want to go straight off of practice speed, more power to you. I won't be fooled, though. He has finished 23rd in his last two starts at Charlotte.
Jamie McMurray: He finished second here in May and ranked 9th on the average speed chart. The only reason I'm leery with Jamie Mac is because of last week's complete failure of a race. He starts 27th and
since 2005 he has only three top tens and an average finish of 20.1.
Scott Speed: Yes, he's super fast in practice again (11th in average speed) and was 7th in Happy Hour. Don't let the speed fool you though, it is Scott Speed (pun intended). The only way he gets a good finish is if he takes a chance and he has gotten worse every race in his career at Charlotte.
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