My Preliminary Top Seven:
1. Jimmie Johnson - Obviously. This is his home track and the numbers speak for themselves: in the last five races, the 48 has led almost 50% of the laps, won three times, and finished in the top ten in all five. His average finish since 2008 here is 2.8. Career average finish here of 5.5 (15 races). He probably would have won at Kansas if there was a late caution. He won here in February.
2. Greg Biffle - These tracks are Roush's bread and butter and Biffle always shows up at the Auto Club Speedway. The Biff started 35th here in February and finished 10th--and remember, Roush was struggling this year until right around Pocono/Indianapolis. His career average finish here is 16.8 in fifteen races but in the last five it has been 10.2. Look for Greg to ride the momentum from the win into California.
3. Matt Kenseth - In the past five races at this track, Kenseth is second to Johnson in terms of average finish at 6.2, and he won one of them. He's got an average career finish here of 9.1 here (17 races) that includes three wins. As I said before, Roush looked terrible until mid-season and Kenseth finished 7th in February after starting 20th.
4. Jeff Gordon - The other Hendrick California boy is pretty good here, too. He didn't finish very well here in February (20th) but he was fast last week for half the race, which was also a 2.5-mile track. Gordon's career average finish at California is 10.9 (over 20 races) and he finishes in the top five here 50% of the time.
5. Tony Stewart - Smoke has never won here but he's riding a four-race streak of top-nine finishes at California. He looked to be driving toward a win last week in Kansas and has had good cars for every race in the Chase so far (Dover is questionable). His average career finish here is 14.9 over eighteen races.
6. Carl Edwards - Every week I find a reason to not pick Carl Edwards, and on Monday I regret it. What Cousin Carl has been doing since Daytona in July is incredible, and the media would be going crazy if his last name was Johnson. In the past twelve races this year, Carl has finished in the top ten in all but two of them and has a low finish of 12th. At Auto Club Speedway, Carl has won once and has a career average finish of 7.2 over twelve races (with only one finish outside the top thirteen).
7. Kevin Harvick - Happy Harvick was very "happy" here in February: he finished 2nd. The 29 was super fast last week in Kansas and Harvick is getting back into his "normal" form and being consistent every week (top fifteen in each of the last four races, three of them being top 10s). Harvick's history at California isn't great (17.7 average finish over 16 races) but has anything been "historically correct" for Harvick this year?
Sleeper of the Week: Scott Speed - I can barely call Paul Menard a sleeper anymore, so I am going with Speed this week. He finished 19th last week in Kansas, which is good for him when you consider how his season is going. He could be driving for his job with Kahne coming into Red Bull next year, too. Speed finished 11th here in February after starting 13th and has gotten better each race at California in his career. His finishes here have been 41st, 21st, and 11th. I'm not saying he will get a top ten, but a top fifteen could be possible if he qualifies well. Watch the 82 in practice this week.
No comments:
Post a Comment