Predicitions: California 2 (Post Qualifying) (Pepsi Max 400)

Click HERE and follow me on Twitter!


Rosters From Last Week Shouldn't Be Too Bad

Jimmie Johnson started 7th at California in February and went on to win the race--surprise, huh? Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, Mark Martin, and Joey Logano rounded out the top five. Results from last year's race can be found here. Jamie McMurray blew everyone away in practice to get the pole and Elliott Sadler put up a surprising 2nd-place effort.. Starting lineups can be found here.

Click HERE for a breakdown of Saturday's practice!

Jordan's Top Fifteen for the Pepsi Max 400:
Driver - Fantasy Price - Car - Starting Position

1. Greg Biffle - $22.20 - #16 3M Ford - Starts 7th


 Seventh was the place to start in February, as Jimmie Johnson won after starting there. Coming off of his win last week at Kansas, Biffle has picked up right where he left off: in addition to starting in the top ten, he put the #16 Ford in the top five in both practices Saturday and was third on the average speed chart. The Biff's career average finish at Auto Club Speedway is a dismal 16.8 but look for him to better that Sunday. During Saturday's first practice, Kyle Busch's crew chief said that the 16 car was the one to beat.

2. Jimmie Johnson - $24.00 - #48 Lowe's/JJ Foundation Chevolet - Starts 8th

Flip a coin on whether to pick The Biff or Johnson this week. JJ had the fastest car at the end of the race last week after looking average at best for most of the race. The 48 was on top of the speed chart in happy hour and fourth fastest in in 10-lap average during Happy Hour. This is Johnson's home track and his record here is phenomenal (he has a career average finish here of 5.5) so expect him toward the front early and often.

3. Matt Kenseth - $24.50 - #17 Crown Royal Ford - Starts 3rd

I say it every week: when Matt Kenseth starts up front, he has a good car; when he is fast in practice, he has a car capable of winning. The 17 hasn't been as good as Johnson here recently, but he has been pretty good: in the past five races at California, Kenseth has an average finish of 6.2 and a win. He has been great here throughout his career (9.2 average finish over 17 races) and Ford's new engine is really starting to show its strength. Matt ended up 8th on the average speed chart and was in the top ten in both practice sessions.

4. Mark Martin - $20.10 - #5 CarQuest/GoDaddy.com Chevrolet - Starts 11th

I'm reluctant to place Mark "The Kid" Martin this high, but the past two races at California say this is exactly where he should be. He has finished 4th in those races at Auto Club Speedway after starting 9th and 10th. Martin finally has a good starting spot after going to the rear in each of the past two races and was 8th and 7th in Saturday's practice sessions as well as 1st in Happy Hour's 10-lap average speed. It may be a little of a stretch for a top five but a top ten is certainly expected.

5. Jamie McMurray - $16.40 - #1 McDonald's Chevrolet - Starts 1st

A quick rundown on just how fast Jamie Mac has been this weekend: he paced first practice, went and grabbed the pole by nearly two tenths of a second, was fourth in second practice and third in Happy Hour. His efforts have placed him atop the average speed charts and second in terms of 10-lap average during Happy Hour. He hasn't been great at California recently (a best finish of 16th in the past eight races) but you can't argue with his speed. Jamie was good at Auto Club Speedway during the beginning of his career, though, amassing five top tens in his first six starts here. Remember: if a driver wins from the pole they get 20 bonus points.

6. Jeff Gordon - $22.90 - #24 DuPont Chevrolet - Starts 17th

The other California-born driver from Hendrick is pretty good here as well: in 20 career starts Gordon has an average finish of 10.9. I had the 24 on my roster last week and there's a good chance he will be on there this week as well. He was in the top five in both practice sessions and was 10th in average speed (4th in happy hour). Gordon will have to pass a few cars to get to the front but I would expect him to lead--at least for a little bit.

7. Kevin Harvick - $27.00 - #29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet - Starts 21st

Happy Harvick is another California-born driver and he's not too bad here, either. He was 8th in Happy Hour average speed and was 5th in 10-lap average speed during that session as well. The 29 finished 2nd here in February, and although I don't think he will finish that high this week, he should post a solid top ten. Harvick fought through traffic last week in Kansas, so I don't see his starting position too much of an obstacle for him.

8. Kyle Busch - $26.20 - #18 M&M's Toyota - Starts 16th

The most newsworthy driver this week was told by his crew chief in Saturday's first practice that Biffle had the car to beat, but that they were right there with him. So are they? Kyle rebounded from the 13th-place effort in second practice and put his Toyota in the 6th spot during Happy Hour (for the fastest lap) as well as the ten-lap average speed. Shrub got his first career win at Auto Club Speedway and has finished in the top fifteen in nine of the last ten races here (eight of them being top tens). Advice for Kyle this week: stay away from David Reutimann.

9. Carl Edwards - $20.70 - #99 Aflac Ford - Starts 20th

Edwards never looks great until the end of the race on Sunday. He was average in qualifying, both practices, and average speed throughout Saturday but since the Daytona race in July he hasn't finished worse than 12th. I'm sure the streak will break soon, but until it does Cousin Carl will continue to crack my top ten week in and week out, simply because he always gets the finish.

10. Joey Logano - $15.90 - #20 Home Depot Toyota - Starts 10th

'Sliced Bread' posted a top five finish here in February after starting 19th. He was 11th in average speed during Happy Hour and posted the 10th-best ten-lap average during that session as well. For his decently low price, he could get you a bunch of points as well as free up some cap space for some of the high-dollar drivers. This rating may be a little high, but a top fifteen for Joey surely isn't out of the question.

11. Denny Hamlin - $23.90 - #11 FedEx Office Toyota - Starts 34th

ESPN may have written off Denny's championship chances on Friday but I could see him taking back the point lead if something were to happen to Johnson in California (note: this won't happen). After getting through Kansas with a 12th place finish, Hamlin stunk it up in qualifying and will have to pass a lot of cars Sunday to get a good finish. It does look like he has the speed to, though. Hamlin was 6th in average speed during Happy Hour and was in the top ten for ten-lap averages during both practice sessions. He would be ranked higher than 11th if it wasn't for his starting spot. An early caution could very easily ruin Denny's weekend--and championship chances.

12. Tony Stewart - $18.20 - #14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet - Starts 22nd

Smoke was his normal self on Saturday and not blowing anybody away in practice (he was 10th and 23rd in the two sessions). However, he is riding a streak of four straight top ten finishes at California and he finished 4th last week in Kansas (I thought he was going to win for awhile). I'll probably regret ranking Stewart so low but I believe (right now, anyway) that 12th is about where he will finish Sunday.

13. A.J. Allmendinger - $12.00 - #43 Valvoline Ford - Starts 30th

The 'Dinger hasn't finished worse than 12th in the past four races and, for some, it seems like he is getting the top stuff at RPM since everyone else is leaving at the end of the season--although I have never believed in that theory. He starts pretty far back, so like Hamlin an early caution could ruin his day, but he started 30th last week and still came home with a top ten, although he wasn't up there until late. He has never finished better than 14th at California but it is possible that will change come Sunday: he was 9th in average speed on Saturday.

14. Clint Bowyer - $17.50 - #33 The Hartford Chevrolet - Starts 13th

Clint has an average career finish of 12.0 at Auto Club Speedway and while RCR doesn't look terrible this week, they don't look stellar either--and haven't since the penalty from Bowyer's "win". Bowyer ended up 12th in average speed during Happy Hour and while I don't see him finishing that high, a top fifteen isn't out of the question.

15. Elliott Sadler - $10.80 - #19 Reynolds Ford - Starts 2nd

Yes, Sadler was on my roster last week, and yes I was disappointed with his finish---I thought he had a lot better car than that. He turned around and put his Ford on the front row and didn't look to shabby in practice, either: he posted the 6th best average speed. I will exercise caution with putting Sadler on your roster this week simply because he can never get the finish, but with his cheap price he may be worth the gamble this week.

On The Outside Looking In:

Jeff Burton: As you may or may not know, I am never very high on Jeff Burton. He qualified in 15th, which is good for this team, but as usual he didn't blow away the field in terms of average speed (28th) but he did end up 11th in Happy Hour. There are much better options than Burton for his price.

Paul Menard: Menard starts 24th and isn't great at California (average career finish of 27.1). He finished 18th here in February, though, which was the best he's ever finished here. The 98 car was (once again) in the top five on the average speed charts (2nd) and led a few laps last week. If he can get through the traffic, Menard could get a solid finish on Sunday.

Casey Mears: Call me crazy but Mears doesn't look terrible at all this week. He's super cheap ($6.50) and if he can get you a top 20, he could perfect your roster. He was 4th in average speed and starts 12th and he does have two top tens at California in his career.

Don't Let Them Fool You:

Kasey Kahne: As usual, he looks fast and he starts up front. Same old story, every single week. He's finished 34th in the past two races at California and has an average finish of 28th in the past five races this year. Until---make that if---he gets his season turned around the 9 won't be on my roster until next season.

Juan Montoya: Montoya is a high risk-high reward driver at these tracks. He runs the high line, which carries a lot of speed, but he usually ends up wrecking his car. He starts 4th, so I'm sure a lot of people will pick him, but he only has one top ten in seven career starts here. Until he develops some consistency, I won't pick Montoya on ovals.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: I'm temped to pick Dale Jr this week because of his top ten starting position and his pretty good average speed (13th overall). However, he hasn't finished better than 25th in the past three races here and hasn't had a top ten here since 2007. Like Montoya, Jr likes to ride the high line around here, which makes him high risk.