The Sprint Cup series last came to Texas in April, with Denny Hamlin charging from his 29th starting position to get the win. Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Kasey Kahne rounded out the top five. Only thirteen cars finished on the lead lap due to it being a fuel mileage race. Click here for the results. Last year's fall race at Texas was won by Kurt Busch, who was followed at the line by Hamlin, Kenseth, Martin, and Harvick. For last year's fall race at Texas' finishing order, click here.
Jordan's Top Fifteen for the Texas AAA 500:
Driver - Fantasy Price - Car - Starting Position
Driver - Fantasy Price - Car - Starting Position
1. Carl Edwards - $20.70 - #99 Aflac Ford - Starts 3rd
I like to watch the Twitter feed for some indication on who has the fastest car for the race. When Elliott Sadler's spotter (@19Spotter) makes a prediction, he's pretty reliable. This week, he predicted Carl Edwards will win the race, and I agree. He starts up front, was fast in practice (2nd in average speed), and loves these tracks. Cousin Carl has won here three times, so he knows how to get around the place, and as long as his engine holds up, he should be fine. Edwards is hit or miss here (11 starts, three wins, only four top tens) but it seems like it has been awhile since we saw a backflip--and this could be the week that changes.
2. Kurt Busch - $21.50 - #2 Operation Home Front Dodge - Starts 6th
These intermediate tracks have been the site of many of the Blue Deuce's strong races this year. Kurt has the same chassis that dominated the Coca-Cola 600 in Charlotte and finished 10th at Indianapolis. He was 6th overall in average speed but didn't run too many laps (is his car just that good?). Busch is on a three race streak of top tens at Texas and has an average career finish here of 13.1 -- with one win.
3. Kyle Busch - $26.20 - #18 M&M's Toyota - Starts 29th
Rowdy should be going for the sweep this weekend at Texas. He went out Friday night and won the Truck Series race (surprising, right?) and will go for the win Saturday afternoon in his Nationwide car. He paced both practice sessions, posting the 3rd-best average speed overall, and finished 3rd in the spring race here. Some may be turned away from Kyle because of his starting positon, but remember this: Denny Hamlin won here in April starting in the exact same position his teammate will start from on Sunday.
4. Greg Biffle - $22.20 - #16 American Red Cross Ford - Starts 2nd
Look for The Biff to take the lead early and contend for the win at the end of the day. Remember at California, a track similar to Texas, Biffle was running near the front when his engine blew. Once again, Roush looks very fast, so hopefully they got their engine problem figured out. Biffle didn't blow anybody out of the water in practice, but his teammates sure did. He was 5th in ten-lap average speed during Happy Hour and has the same chassis from the car that Biffle won with at Pocono.
5. Tony Stewart - $18.20 - #14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet - Starts 11th
Very rarely do you see Tony Stewart in the top half of the average speed chart--usually Smoke likes to do long runs during practice to see how his tires will react during the race. This week, surprisingly, Tony showed up 11th in overall average speed. He won the pole in the spring race, but an accident mired him back to a 32nd-place showing. Before that, Smoke had three straight top tens at Texas. He has won here before, and while his Chase may not be going how he would like (only two top tens), that doesn't mean he can't run well this week. Smoke has the same chassis this week that finished 6th at Texas last fall.
6. Denny Hamlin - $23.90 - #11 FedEx Office Toyota - Starts 30th
Hamlin didn't show much life in terms of a fast lap in practice on Saturday, but he ended up 5th in average speed. He has an average career finish at Texas of 9.6 and has three top fives in his past five races here (including a win in the spring). Hamlin hasn't finished worse than 12th in the Chase this year and is in prime position to take over the points lead this week at one of his best tracks.
7. Clint Bowyer - $17.50 - Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet - Starts 7th
Bowyer has brought the same chassis to Texas this week that he finished 2nd to Tony Stewart with at California. He ended up 9th on the average speed chart and has an average career finish at Texas of 15.3. In nine career starts here, Clint has finished outside of the top twenty only twice and it will take a wreck for that to happen on Sunday. Bowyer may have some momentum coming into Texas after his thrilling win at Talladega on Halloween.
8. Jeff Burton - $21.80 - #31 Caterpillar Chevrolet - Starts 16th
One guy who got completely passed over on my preview article was Jeff Burton, the driver who has been very consistent lately at Texas. In the past eight races here, Burton has amassed six top tens and a lowest finish of 13th. The problem with Jeff this year has been finishing, though. He usually has a car that can get to the front and contend for the win, but something always happens that shuffles him back. He never looks good in average speed--and this week is no different--but he did have the 5th-fastest lap in Happy Hour.
9. Kevin Harvick - $27.00 - #29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet - Starts 26th
I wasn't too impressed with RCR this week, and Happy is no exception. He ended up 30th in average speed, but had the 9th-fastest ten lap average in Happy Hour. He has finished in the top 11 in five of the past six races at Texas, so I expect him to come to the front, but I don't see a top five for Harvick on Sunday. While he has never won here, Kevin does have a career average finish of 12.9.
10. Jimmie Johnson - $24.00 - #48 Lowe's Chevrolet - Starts 17th
This ranking is more of where I'd like JJ to finish, rather than where he will actually finish. He had the third best ten-lap average speed in Happy Hour and was 9th in Happy Hour average speed. "The Champ" has finished second in three of the past five races here but hasn't been too great in the fall race lately: last year he ended up 38th and in 2008 he finished 15th. He has an average finish of 10.1 here and has brought the same chassis that he finished 3rd with at Charlotte in October.
11. Matt Kenseth - $24.50 - #17 Crown Royal Black Ford - Starts 19th
We haven't heard much from Kenseth in the past few weeks (his most recent races have ended with 15th and 16th-place finishes). He's pretty good at Texas, though, so I see him turning that around. He ended up 16th on the average speed chart (14th in Happy Hour) and was 8th in ten-lap average speed during Happy Hour. Prior to his 20th-place effort in the spring race, Matt had a six race streak of single-digit finishes. His average career finish at Texas is 9.9.
12. Joey Logano - $15.90 - #20 The Home Depot Toyota - Starts 20th
"Sliced Bread" comes into Texas with a three-race streak of top tens (and a four-race streak of top elevens) for this first time in his Sprint Cup career. He ended up 11th in average speed during Happy Hour (17th overall) and both of his teammates look fast. In last year's fall race he finished a career best (at Texas) 19th and I see him improving that this week. He was in the top ten in both ten-lap averages on Saturday.
13. David Ragan - $13.20 - #6 UPS Ford - Starts 5th
Like I said before, when Elliott Sadler's spotter (@19Spotter) speaks, I listen. His dark horse pick for the race on Sunday? David Ragan. And for good reason. Ragan came out on Friday and posted a top-five qualifying effort, and backed that up Saturday with quick practice speeds (7th in overall average speed and 3rd in Happy Hour average speed). These intermediate tracks are the type that he excels at and he has been on a roll ever since he got a new crew chief. Ragan has four top 17s in his past five starts at Texas.
14. Paul Menard - $12.80 - #98 Quaker State/Menards Ford - Starts 12th
As usual, Menard is at the front of the average speed chart (he has been doing this quite consistently all season). He ended up fourth in both ten-lap average charts on Saturday and is running the same chassis that he ran at Chicagoland and Dover, where Paul finished 10th and 7th. Look for a good run for the 98 car this week, and look for him to finish out the season strong before he moves to the Childress table in 2011.
15. Martin Truex, Jr. - $19.30 - #56 NAPA Toyota - Starts 21st
Truex, like Menard, usually finds himself toward the top of the average speed chart on a week-to-week basis. The only downside to that is that he can never get the finish. However, he's coming into a track that has been good for him: in ten career starts at Texas, Truex Jr. has five top tens and an average finish of 13.9. He finished 9th in the spring race.
On The Outside Looking In:
David Reutimann - Reutty has looked impressive on the intermediate tracks all year (he won at Chicago) and he was in the top ten in both ten-lap average charts on Saturday. He's a little risky, due to his inability to finish, but he can be valuable from a fantasy standpoint this week. He's finished worse than 16th only once in his past four starts at Texas.
Marcos Ambrose - Ambrose ended up 10th on the average speed chart and starts 32nd--the same spot he started in the spring race here (where he finished 17th). His best finish at Texas is 15th and in the past two races here, he has an average finish of 16th. He may not challenge for a top ten, but a top 15 isn't out of the question.
Aric Almirola - Since replacing Kasey Kahne in the #9 Ford, Almirola has been quietly impressive. He has averaged 104 points per race and has finished 21st and 20th. Those points are very valuable when you consider his low price. He starts 13th on Sunday but I look for him to run right around 20th.
Don't Let Them Fool You:
Juan Montoya - Montoya may look like a good pick this week, but I'm a little worried with his history at Texas. He has only completed 91.6% of his laps here and in seven career starts at Texas, he's finished better than 18th only twice.
Regan Smith - He starts 8th and has three top fifteens in the past three races. He posted the fifth-fastest lap in Happy Hour as well, but don't let those stats fool you. Smith has started five races at Texas, and has finished in the top 30 only once: 21st in the spring race.
No comments:
Post a Comment