Talladega, as I predicted, was fully of conservative racing right up until the end, with another close finish that NASCAR had to review the tapes to determine the winner--which wasn't the quickest decision. Jimmie Johnson is still the points leader, but Kevin Harvick closed the gap and is within 38 points in third, while Hamlin, in second place, is only 14 points behind coming into--statistically--his sixth-best track.
Denny Hamlin won at Texas in April, followed by Johnson, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Kasey Kahne. To view the results from the April 2010 Texas race, click here. Last year's Texas race ended up with Kurt Busch winning, with Hamlin, Kenseth, Martin, and Harvick rounding out the top five. Click here to view the results from the 2009 fall Texas race.
My Preliminary Top Seven
for the AAA Texas 500
1. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin has been pretty good at Texas throughout his career, amassing seven top 10s in ten career starts here. He has finished outside of the top twenty only once in those ten career races. Hamlin is the most recent winner here and finished 2nd in last year's fall race at Texas. He has the best average finish of anyone in the circuit at Texas (9.6) and hasn't finished lower than 17th in his past five starts here.
2. Mark Martin - Until Martin has a bad race, I will continue ranking him high every week. He's on a roll right now in this season (six straight top 15s) and he's on a roll at Texas as well (four straight top 10s). Over the past five races at Texas, Martin has the best average finish of all drivers (7.2) and hasn't finished lower than 12th.
3. Matt Kenseth - Since 2007, Kenseth has finished outside of the top nine only once (this spring race). He has an average career finish here of 9.9 (second behind Hamlin) and has led at least one lap in ten of his sixteen starts here. Since NASCAR started running at Texas in November, Kenseth has finished outside of the top ten only once--and that was 12th (five November races).
4. Kurt Busch - The Blue Deuce has been very good on these tracks throughout the year and while the Penske cars haven't impressed the hell out of me recently, it's hard to go against Kurt Busch this week: he won the last fall race at Texas and finished 4th this year in April. He's on a three-race streak of top tens at this track and has an average career finish of 13.1 here.
5. Kyle Busch - Kurt Busch may have won the fall race at Texas in 2009, but he wasn't the best car. Rowdy led 232 of the 334 laps and finished 11th because it was a fuel mileage race (only six drivers finished on the lead lap). Kyle finished 3rd in the spring race here and a top ten is expected this week--if not a top five.
6. Kevin Harvick - The most consistent driver this year is coming into his seventh-best track (statistically) and well within reach of the championship lead. Happy finished seventh here in April and got a 7th-place finish last fall. He has finished all but twelve laps in his career at Texas (15 races) and has an average finish of 12.9.
7. Greg Biffle - If the Roush cars are given reliable engines this week, look out for the Biff. Even though he wasn't very good here at the beginning of his career (he had one top ten in his first six races at Texas) but he has been good recently here--five top tens in his last seven races. Don't let his low career average finish (20.1) at Texas fool you, he will have a good race this week.
2. Mark Martin - Until Martin has a bad race, I will continue ranking him high every week. He's on a roll right now in this season (six straight top 15s) and he's on a roll at Texas as well (four straight top 10s). Over the past five races at Texas, Martin has the best average finish of all drivers (7.2) and hasn't finished lower than 12th.
3. Matt Kenseth - Since 2007, Kenseth has finished outside of the top nine only once (this spring race). He has an average career finish here of 9.9 (second behind Hamlin) and has led at least one lap in ten of his sixteen starts here. Since NASCAR started running at Texas in November, Kenseth has finished outside of the top ten only once--and that was 12th (five November races).
4. Kurt Busch - The Blue Deuce has been very good on these tracks throughout the year and while the Penske cars haven't impressed the hell out of me recently, it's hard to go against Kurt Busch this week: he won the last fall race at Texas and finished 4th this year in April. He's on a three-race streak of top tens at this track and has an average career finish of 13.1 here.
5. Kyle Busch - Kurt Busch may have won the fall race at Texas in 2009, but he wasn't the best car. Rowdy led 232 of the 334 laps and finished 11th because it was a fuel mileage race (only six drivers finished on the lead lap). Kyle finished 3rd in the spring race here and a top ten is expected this week--if not a top five.
6. Kevin Harvick - The most consistent driver this year is coming into his seventh-best track (statistically) and well within reach of the championship lead. Happy finished seventh here in April and got a 7th-place finish last fall. He has finished all but twelve laps in his career at Texas (15 races) and has an average finish of 12.9.
7. Greg Biffle - If the Roush cars are given reliable engines this week, look out for the Biff. Even though he wasn't very good here at the beginning of his career (he had one top ten in his first six races at Texas) but he has been good recently here--five top tens in his last seven races. Don't let his low career average finish (20.1) at Texas fool you, he will have a good race this week.
Underdogs of the Week:
Scott Speed - Speed is driving for a ride next year and hasn't been terrible on these type of tracks this year (11th at California and 10th at Atlanta). He has three career starts at Texas and has two top 20s to his credit, including a 16th place finish in the spring.
David Ragan - Ragan was a huge dud last week at Talladega, which was one of his best tracks. I look for him to come into Texas and have a good week, though. He has four top 17s in his past five races here and this type of track is one of his stronger types.
Brad Keselowski - BK is finally showing some life. He has two straight top tens and this type of track has been one of his best (remember how well he was running when Edwards wrecked him at Atlanta?). He put up a career best finish at Texas in the fall with a 14th place effot.
Don't Fool Yourself:
Jimmie Johnson - I will probably be the only person to tell you not to pick JJ this week. He has an average career finish of 10.1 here, but in his past two fall races at Texas, Jimmie has ended up 38th and 15th. Will he finish that low this week? It's possible.
Tony Stewart - It's no secret that Smoke hasn't had a very good Chase this year. In the seven races of the 2010 Chase, Stewart has five finishes of 21st or worse. He finished 32nd earlier this year and is too much of a risk for me to pick him this week.
Juan Montoya - Montoya is coming off a great run at Talladega, and has had success at similar tracks to Texas. However, his history hasn't been great here. He has seven starts here and only two finishes better than 19th. He has finished only 91.6% of the laps ran in his seven races here.
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