If it wasn't for a late race pit stop in Phoenix for fuel, Hamlin would have a comfortable lead over Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick heading into the final race of the season. However, after a 12th-place effort, Denny Hamlin finds himself just 15 points ahead of Johnson and 46 in front of Harvick. One good thing for Hamlin, though: last year at Homestead, he won after starting 38th. Click here to see how they finished at Homestead-Miami Speedway in 2009 as Jimmie Johnson won his fourth consecutive championship.
My Preliminary Top Seven
for the Ford 400
1. Carl Edwards - Fresh off his win at Phoenix, I expect to see Edwards follow that up with a solid run at Homestead. He has made six career starts here and has never finished worse than 14th--and that was his first start here. He also has the best average finish of anyone in the Cup series at 6.5. He won here in 2008 after starting 8th.
2. Kevin Harvick - If Happy was a little closer in the championship standings, he would be my pick to be the 2010 champion. However, it will take a lot of luck for that too happen (although, in my opinion, Harvick has been the best this year). He has never won here but his last two finishes have been 2nd and 3rd in the finale. Harvick will be trying his hardest for the win--both in the race and championship--and I expect him to finish up front. His career average finish here is 8.4.
3. Denny Hamlin - It's Hamlin's championship to lose and he's coming to a track where he has found success before. He won the finale last year after starting 38th and has two other third-place finishes in five career starts at the speedway. Don't expect Hamlin to start very well, though: he has never rolled off the grid better than 25th in his career at Homestead-Miami.
4. Jeff Gordon - With an average career finish of 9.5 in eleven starts at Homestead, look for Gordon to have a good day on Sunday. He's finished outside of the top ten just twice in his career here and while he hasn't finished better than third at this track, he does have five top fives. Gordon hasn't finished better than 8th in the past month and a half but I see that changing on Sunday.
5. Jimmie Johnson - JJ has never won here--surprisingly--but does have three top fives to his credit and six top tens in his nine career starts at Homestead-Miami. He's started on the pole in two of the last three races here and came away with top tens in both of those (5th and 7th). He actually has something to race for at Homestead in 2010 so expect a very good race come Sunday.
6. Mark Martin - I said a couple weeks ago that Martin won't come off of my weekly top seven until he has a bad week and that hasn't happened yet. After his 8th-place finish in Phoenix last week, Martin is now riding an eight-race streak of top 15s coming into a track where he has found success at (but never won at). Mark's average finish here is 12th and I see no reason why he won't have another good finish on Sunday.
7. Martin Truex, Jr. - Hey, we finally have a week where we can pick Truex! He's not your first thought when you think of Homestead-Miami Speedway, but the guy has ran good here his entire career. His average finish is 11.8 in five career starts and he has finished outside of the top ten just once (flat tire his rookie year).
Underdogs of the Week:
Bill Elliott - Call me crazy but chances are Elliott will be on my roster this week. He's an excellent value for his low cap price and will provide valuable fantasy points. His last two races driving the #21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford at Homestead-Miami Speedway have resulted in finishes of 16th and 12th.
A.J. Allmendinger - In two career starts here, The 'Dinger has finished 11th and 10th--and he finished 11th after starting dead last during his rookie year. In the last four races, A.J. has notched three finishes between 12th and 18th; look for him to run around the top ten on Sunday.
Aric Almirola - Still a very good fantasy option because of his low price. All of the top rosters last week had Almirola on them in NASCAR.com's Fantasy Cap Challenge. He has one start at Homestead, finishing 35th while driving the 8 car for DEI.
Don't Fool Yourself:
Kyle Busch - It took me a while to find Rowdy on the stat sheet this week because he was so low. Tony Raines, Kyle Petty, Mike Wallace, Jason Leffler, and Scott Speed are some examples of drivers that have better career average finishes at Homestead-Miami than Kyle. Five career starts have produced just one top ten and an average finish of 25.2 for Busch.
Tony Stewart - He may have won here twice but he hasn't been very good lately. Since 2005 he has only one top ten (a 9th in 2008). Smoke has also been less than stellar in the past month: not a single top ten since his win at California.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Junior is coming off a 14th-place run at Phoenix but don't think that was the beginning of something good for NASCAR's golden boy. He has made ten career starts at Homestead but hasn't come home with a top ten yet. His average finish is an abysmal 23.9.
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