My Preliminary Top Seven:
1. Jimmie Johnson - best average finish on similar tracks, has finished in the top ten in nine of his last ten Loudon races.
2. Jeff Gordon - average finish of 5th on similar tracks this year (has finished in the top 5 in all but one), five of his last eight Loudon races have been top five finishes.
3. Denny Hamlin - has had arguably the best car the last two weeks, will look to continue his streak at Loudon (he has never finished outside of the top fifteen in his career).
4. Kyle Busch - average finish of 5.5 on similar tracks, ran better than his 11th place finish here earlier in the year.
5. Kevin Harvick - average finish of 7.5 on similar tracks, has won here before and finished 5th earlier this year here
6. Kurt Busch - in the last five Loudon races he has an average finish of 3.8, finished third earlier this year here.
7. Ryan Newman - Average finish of 6.5 in similar tracks this year, has won here twice and has top tens in each of his last two starts here.
I can't stress enough this week how important average speeds are this week as the Cup series begins the Chase in Loudon, New Hampshire. When the boys were here in June, Jimmie Johnson won the race, followed by Stewart and Kurt Busch. Kasey Kahne looked to be headed toward a win, but blew an engine as he was leading. Montoya was also having a solid top five day until he cut a tire.
History has shown that drivers who have good races at Phoenix and Richmond tend to do very well at Loudon as well. To be successful this week, I would highly recommend paying close attention to the average speeds chart I post. Eleven of the top thirteen in terms of average speed last Loudon race finished in the top thirteen, and Montoya was well on his way to making it twelve out of thirteen (he was fourth fastest in average speed). Johnson was fastest in average speed and won the race, Kurt Busch was third in average speed and finished third, and Clint Bowyer was sixth in average speed and finished seventh.
If you go by history, you will probably have very good luck this week in fantasy. Along with average speeds, how drivers do in Phoenix and Richmond will tell you who will probably be good in Loudon. Joey Logano won the first (rain shortened) race here in 2009 with Mark Martin winning the second. Here is the top ten average finishes this year of both Richmond races, the Phoenix race, and the first Loudon races:
1. Jimmie Johnson - average finish of 4.25 - top ten in all four races
2. Jeff Gordon - average finish of 5.0 - top 5 in three out of the four races
3. Kyle Busch - average finish of 5.5 - top 10 in three out of the four races (11th in other)
4. Ryan Newman - average finish of 6.5 - top ten in three out of the four races (11th in other)
5. Kevin Harvick - average finish of 7.5 - top ten in three out of the four races
6. Clint Bowyer - average finish of 8.5 - top ten in three out of the four races (12th in other)
7. Marcos Ambrose - average finish of 9.5 - top ten in two out the four races (11th and 13th in others)
8. Joey Logano - average finish of 9.75 - top ten in three out of the four races
9. Carl Edwards - average finish of 11.75 - top ten in three out of the four races
10a. A.J. Allmendinger - average finish of 12.5 - top ten in two out of the four races
10b. Matt Kenseth - average finish of 12.5 - top fifteen in three out of the four races
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