Check out my (possible) final roster at the bottom. Good luck to all.
Qualifying is wrapped up and I'm a little surprised at the pole winner, Denny Hamlin. I also expected Kasey Kahne to end up a little better than he did. Truex, Jr. also surprised me a bit. Maybe a sleeper? 80% of the race winners at Atlanta have started in the top ten.
Qualifying results can be found BY CLICKING HERE
Denny Hamlin: "I'm not a qualifier, but I think the lap I just put down shows how good this car is."
This is the same guy who said, when he was winning all those races earlier this year, that they had cars that were even faster than what they were using then. Is he starting his drive for the championship? Denny said that this week the FedEx team is "bringing it" to see how the stack up with the competition heading into the Chase.
Jordan's Top Fifteen for the Emory Healthcare 500:
Driver - Fantasy Price - Car - Starting Position
1. Carl Edwards - $20.70 - #99 Aflac Ford - Starts 4th
Arguably the hottest driver on the circuit is well past due for a win at one of his best tracks. The Ford engines have come alive since Indianapolis and Carl is in perfect position to capitalize. Earlier this year at Atlanta he had the brush up with Keselowski, but neither of them can afford to mess with each other. Carl was second in average speed, 22nd in first practice, and 2nd in final (qualifying) practice. He may not have been fast on the speed chart in first practice, but he said he loved his car.
2. Kurt Busch - $21.50 - #2 Miller Lite Dodge - Starts 11th
Kurt likes his car, is the most recent winner at this event (and two of the last three), and is the only driver this year to finish in the top five in all three 1.5-mile tracks with 24 degrees of banking in the corners. Good pick this week? For sure. He pretty much only worked on race setup during practice, causing a low place in average speed (32nd), but he had the second fastest lap in first practice while coming in 20th in final (qualifying) practice. If Busch fits your roster with his price, feel free to pull the trigger on him.
3. Denny Hamlin - $23.90 - #11 Sport Clips Toyota - Starts 1st
Attention: this guy is fast. He was P1 in average speeds, and ended up fifth in first practice, 14th in final (qualifying) practice. He already has 5 wins and could add to that total this week. In five of the last six Atlanta races, he has had an average running position of eighth or better. He just can't finish it seems. 10 starts, 3 top tens. However, all three have been in this race. Average finish of 13.4 on the 1.5-mile racetracks this year (5 races).
4. Kasey Kahne - $14.30 - #9 Budweiser Ford - Starts 10th
Kasey was my pick to win before qualifying because he has had a fast car all weekend: 3rd in average speed, 1st in first practice, and 6th in final (qualifying) practice. I don't buy the whole "he won't get the best equipment because he is leaving at the end of the year". Kahne finished 4th earlier this year at Atlanta, won this event a year ago, and has an average finish of 7.2 this year on the 1.5-mile tracks. He's the best value pick this week for how cheap he is.
5. Greg Biffle - $22.20 - #16 3M Ford - Starts 15th
Not a great qualifying effort by The Biff, but he has the car to get up to the front. Ford's are rolling and Biffle has been fast all weekend: 7th in average speed, 7th in first practice, and 10th in final (qualifying) practice. He's bringing back the same car he won with at Pocono. He has four top tens in his last five Atlanta starts. Expect him to continue that streak Sunday night.
6. Juan Montoya - $15.40 - #42 Huggies Chevrolet - Starts 7th
We know this about Juan: he's either going to finish great or wreck. He's a risky pick, but for the low price and the fast car, he might be worth the risk. The Colombian was 10th in average speed, 16th in first practice, and 3rd in final (qualifying) practice. Montoya has finished in 3rd place in the last two Atlanta races, and has finished in 7th in the last two races since his win at Watkins Glen.
7. Clint Bowyer - $17.50 - #33 BB&T Chevrolet - Starts 14th
Clint is the last person in the Chase and is going to have to be conservative over the next two races to solidify his spot. He might have the car to win (4th in average speed, 3rd in first practice, and 5th in final (qualifying) practice). But do you think he's going to go for the win? Maybe, but I wouldn't count on it. He might have the best car, or at least a top five car, but he's not going to push his luck for the win. Clint has been good on these types of tracks this year, just doesn't have the finishes.
8. Jimmie Johnson - $24.00 - #48 Lowe's Chevrolet - Starts 8th
Johnson is definately not on top of his game recently (only one top ten in the last seven races) and could, mathematically, miss out on the Chase (that won't happen). The 48 was 20th in average speed, 15th in first practice, and 7th in final (qualifying) practice. He has the best crew chief in the business who will use strategy to get this team going on their way to the Chase. Johnson arguably had the car to beat last week at Bristol and will use the same car from Pocono, where he finished 10th.
9. Kyle Busch - $26.20 - #18 Pedigree Toyota - Starts 3rd
It doesn't matter where Shrub starts, but starting up front just adds to his power for the week. He hasn't been the fastest in practice (15th in average speed, 19th in first practice, and 21st in final (qualifying) practice) but the best driver in the business can make any car fast. He won't challenge for the win, but with his teammate Hamlin looking so fast, he might feed off of that. Has an average running position of 9th or better in four of the last six Atlanta races. If he can keep his cool, he will be fine.
10. Matt Kenseth - $24.50 - #17 Crown Royal Black Ford - Starts 30th
Matt never qualifies well but he's always there at the end. Tracks like Atlanta are arguably his best and Ford--and Roush for that matter--are on fire. Expect Kenseth to make his way up through the field and get a solid top ten. 24th in average speed, 6th in first practice, and 28th in final (qualifying) practice. I don't see Kenseth as a completely necessary pick this week due to his price; there are much better options available for less money.
11. Tony Stewart - $18.20 - #14 Office Depot Chevrolet - Starts 5th
Smoke's mid-season streak hit a wall last week in Bristol after he suffered damage. He hasn't been very strong on these track types in 2010 and over his last four starts in Hotlanta, Tony only has one top ten. He was decent in speed: 14th in average speed, 8th in first practice, and 9th in final (qualifying) practice. While Smoke only has one top ten in his last four starts here, he does have an average finish of 12.3, which is right about where I think he will finish Sunday night.
12. Paul Menard - $12.80 - #98 Menards Chevrolet - Starts 19th
These are the types of tracks Menard does the best at. Many people are going to have him on their roster this week because of his price and how good he is. If you dare to be different and think he may not finish well, he could be the difference maker on rosters. Menard was 9th in average speed, 11th in first practice, and 8th in final (qualifying) practice. Because he starts so deep, I don't think he will get a top ten, but he could pull it off: he finished 5th in Atlanta in March after starting 23rd. He also finished 10th at Chicago in July.
13. A.J. Allmendinger - $12.50 - #43 Insignia/Best Buy Ford - Starts 16th
Like Menard, many people will have The 'Dinger on their rosters this week. His practice speeds haven't been stellar, but he normally doesn't show his all of stuff in practice. He was 8th in average speed, but only 29th in first practice. In final (qualifying) practice he ended up 12th, just about where he qualified. A.J. finished sixth in the March race here.
14. Jeff Gordon - $22.90 - #24 Jeff Gordon Children's Foundation Chevrolet - Starts 18th
If I hear another report on how "cool" Jeff's car is, I'm going to pull my hair out. I'm not sure what is up with Hendrick lately, but they're definately not hitting on all cylinders. Gordon was 22nd in average speed, 12th in first practice, and 15th in final practice. He will get a top fifteen, but I don't think this car is that good. He finished 18th earlier this year at Atlanta.
15. Ryan Newman - $18.60 - #39 U.S. Army Chevrolet - Starts 2nd
Yes, starting position means a lot here, but plain and simple: The Rocket Man isn't good here. He has an average finish of 20th here in 12 starts with one top ten. The only reason he may finish this good is because he starts so well, although he usually starts up front here (he had a streak of six straight poles at Atlanta). Sixth in average speed, 9th in first practice, and 1st in final (qualifying) practice. Don't let the speed fool you with Newman this week: there are much better options at that price. Best ten lap average in first practice.
On The Outside Looking In:
David Ragan: He starts 9th and hasn't looked to terrible in practice. 26.6 average career finish at Atlanta, but this is his type of track. Expect a solid top 20.
Jamie McMurray: Just when you don't hear much about Jamie, he shows up and gets a top five. He starts in the top third (12th) and didn't look too shabby in practice (12th in average speed). A top fifteen wouldn't surprise me.
David Reutimann: The Double-Zero won at Chicago, which isn't unlike Atlanta. He also seems to run well in night races. Reutty starts 13th and was also 13th in first practice. With a little strategy, Reutimann could steal a top five. If he fits into your roster, he could be very valuable.
My Tentative Roster:
My Final Roster:
Denny Hamlin $23.90
Kurt Busch 21.50
David Reutimann 14.80
Kasey Kahne 14.30
Paul Menard 12.80
A.J. Allmendinger 12.00
$99.30
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