In May, Kyle Busch came away with the win, although it seemed like it was Jimmie Johnson's race to lose. Jeff Burton, Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, and David Reutimann rounded out the top five. Results from May can be found here. After last week's disaster, the 48 team is out for blood and started out by grabbing the pole on Friday. The starting lineup for Sunday's AAA 400 can be found here. Johnson won the pole on Friday. Starting lineups can be found here.
Jordan's Top Fifteen for the AAA 400:
Driver - Fantasy Price - Car - Starting Position
1. Matt Kenseth - $24.50 - #17 Crown Royal Ford - Starts 14th
Kenseth starting in the top fifteen? He has a good car. Kenseth fast in practice (4th in average speed)? He has a great car. He never shows his hand during practice, let alone qualifying, but when he's near the top in both of those, you know he has a good car. Here's something else to ponder: in the last five Dover races, Kenseth has finished in the top five in each race, with an average finish of 3.2.
2. Jimmie Johnson - $24.00 - #48 Lowe's/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet - Starts 1st
Since 2008, JJ has led 877 laps at Dover. The second highest total in that span was 289 by Kyle Busch. Not only does he start up front, but Johnson's car has been great since they unloaded it. His average speed wasn't great (21st) but he was in the top ten in each practice in terms of fastest lap. He was also 3rd in each practice on the ten-lap average speed chart. I see Johnson improving his 6.0 average finish at Dover since 2008 and his 10.2 average career finish here this weekend. Remember: if a driver wins from the pole, you get an extra 20 points.
3. Denny Hamlin - $23.90 - #11 FedEx Express Toyota - Starts 4th
I rank Hamlin this high but exercise a word of caution after his on-track incident with Kevin Harvick. It didn't look like too much damage but it was enough to make the 11 team miss a significant amount of practice time. They ended up pretty good (9th in average speed) and Hamlin was in the top ten in both ten-lap average charts. Denny finished 4th here in May and if he doesn't get caught up in drama, I see no reason why a top five isn't out of the question.
4. Kurt Busch - $21.50 - #2 Miller Lite Dodge - Starts 8th
The older Busch brother has been pretty quiet all week with all the happenings going on around him. However, he has been consistently fast: the Blue Deuce was 13th in happy hour, 3rd in second practice, and 4th in average speed. "The Monster Mile" is also known as "Bristol on Steroids" and we all know Kurt's skill at the Tennessee track. His average career finish at Dover isn't stellar (19.6) but I have a good feeling about the Miller Lite Dodge this week.
5. Greg Biffle - $22.20 - #16 3M Ford - Starts 6th
Biffle has been great at Dover in his career (average finish of 10.5 with two wins) and so has Roush. The Biff starts up toward the front and was consistent in average practice speeds (7th overall and 9th in happy hour). In the past five races at Dover, Biffle has four top tens, which included a win, and his lowest finish was 13th. A top five is definitely possible for Greg this weekend.
6. Carl Edwards - $20.70 - #99 Aflac Ford - Starts 10th
With top 20s in each of the last five Dover races, and an average finish of 6.2, Cousin Carl looks like a very solid pick this week. One more thing: he's the hottest driver on the circuit right now, even though he hasn't won. Edwards finished 8th here in May after starting 9th, but has the speed this week to get a better result. He was 11th in average speed (overall) but 2nd in Happy Hour average speed. Will we see a backflip, finally?
7. Kyle Busch - $26.20 - #18 Interstate Batteries Toyota - Starts 11th
Shrub ran a bunch of laps throughout both practices, which may explain his low average speed (22nd overall). However, he won here in May and, while he don't look too fast, his teammates both look quick. Kyle has been either hit or miss at Dover lately (two wins, but three finishes of 23rd or worse). As usual, I'll tell you to use Kyle with caution, and his price may be a little too high to pull the trigger this week.
8. Jeff Gordon - $22.90 - #24 DuPont/Law Enforcement Museum Chevrolet - Starts 15th
It sure seems like Jeff Gordon's paint scheme is top news each week, from his daughter's creation to this week's Law Enforcement Museum paintjob. Jeff was real quick in Happy Hour average speed (5th), which I put more emphasis on this week than first practice, and he also had the quickest 10-lap average speed. I don't see him contending for the win, but a top ten wouldn't be surprising.
9. David Reutimann - $14.80 - #00 Aaron's Dream Machine Toyota - Starts 17th
David Reutimann looks great this weekend, and coming off of his 7th place finish last week, he has momentum. He starts pretty deep, but finished 5th at Dover in May after starting 13th. I don't want to rate him too high, but another top five wouldn't surprise me one bit: the 00 topped the average practice speeds chart and had the 11th-best 10-lap average in Happy Hour. My sleeper pick of the week looks like a very solid option going into Sunday.
10. Martin Truex, Jr. - $19.30 - #56 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota - Starts 3rd
Truex is doing just like he does every week: look phenomenal in practice. Throughout this season the #56 has been near the front of the average speed charts numerous times (2nd this week) but he can never finish. However, he rarely starts as well as he does this week. Truex's lone career win came at Dover, and nothing can cure an illness (he has been sick all weekend) better than a win. Michael Waltrip Racing's cars look incredibly fast this week, the question is just whether they can get the finish or not.
11. Jeff Burton - $21.80 - #31 Caterpillar Chevrolet - Starts 27th
Burton was 8th in 10-lap average speed in Happy Hour and ended up 26th on the average speed chart, which is normal because he never shows his hand. However, you can't argue with his past at Dover: three top tens in his last five races and an average career finish of 15.9. RCR doesn't impress me much this week, so be careful when making your roster.
12. Jamie McMurray - $16.40 - #1 McDonald's Chevrolet - Starts 7th
If you go off of ten-lap average speeds, Jamie Mac looks like the man to beat. He was 2nd in Happy Hour and had the best 10-lap average in first practice. Add in the 14th best average speed overall and a top ten is within his grasps. He starts up front but finished 32nd in May after starting 11th. McMurray has been doing the exact opposite of his past this entire season, and the way he has been running lately makes the #1 Chevy a pretty good pick in my mind.
13. Kevin Harvick - $27.00 - #29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet - Starts 33rd
He starts in the back and inflicted damage to his car by running into Hamlin in first practice; not the ideal situation to pick Happy Harvick. He ended up 8th in overall average speed (and 1st in Happy Hour average speed) and finished 7th here in May after starting 30th. Again, I'm not too high on RCR this week and Harvick isn't worth the price this week.
14. Joey Logano - $15.90 - #20 Home Depot Toyota - Starts 19th
Sliced Bread may not be too great here (22.3 average career finish) but he did collect his first top ten at Dover earlier this season. Joey ended up 10th in average speed and topped the practice chart in Happy Hour. There are better options in his price range (Reutimann) but if he fits into your roster, you should expect a top fifteen finish.
15. A.J. Allmendinger - $12.00 - #43 Insignia HDTV/Best Buy Ford - Starts 2nd
Since Kasey Kahne announced he was leaving Richard Petty Motorsports, it seems like A.J. has been getting the top equipment. However, he hasn't been able to get the finishes he deserves: in the past seven races, Allmendinger has an average starting position of 8.9 but an average finish of 16.3. He once again starts up front but doesn't look extremely fast (15th in average speed). A top fifteen is what I expect Allmendinger to claim this week, just like he did in May at Dover (14th).
On The Outside Looking In:
Paul Menard: Menard once again looks incredibly fast in practice (5th in average speed) and he starts 9th. Menard also posted very quick 10-lap averages in both practices. He may be able to crack the top fifteen but his history here shows that he will probably finish around 20th.
Marcos Ambrose: Dover is referred to as "Bristol on Steroids" and Ambrose has a very good record at Bristol. He starts 23rd but he knows how to save his brakes and stay in the race until the end. His first practice speeds were way off but the Tasmanian Devil was 16th in Happy Hour average speeds. He won't beat his career best average finish here (14th) but he could surprise some people.
Reed Sorenson: Sorenson said that this car is the best he's had in a while and went out and qualified 12th. He won't challenge for a win, let alone a top 10, but this could be the week to pick Reed. With as cheap as he is, you will be able to afford a few high-dollar guys, and if the 83 gets you a top 20 finish, that roster could win you some money.
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