Kyle Busch edged out Jeff Gordon at Richmond earlier in the year after starting on the pole. Will he win again Saturday night? Click here to see the finishing order from the May race in Richmond.
Over 70% of the winners at RIR have come from a top ten starting position, with over 40% of them starting in the first two rows. The starting lineup for the Air Guard 400 can be found here.
After a crazy week in Atlanta, hopefully this week will be a little easier to predict.
My Final Roster:
Carl Edwards $20.70
Ryan Newman 18.60
Clint Bowyer 17.50
Juan Montoya 15.40
David Reutimann 14.80
Marcos Ambrose 11.10
$98.10
Jordan's Top Fifteen for the Air Guard 400:
Driver - Fantasy Price - Car - Starting Position
1. Carl Edwards - $20.70 - #99 Kellogg's/Cheez-it Ford - Starts 1st
The hottest driver on the circuit continued his streak at Atlanta with a top five finish and not only grabbed the pole in the Sprint Cup race but the Nationwide race as well. He's been on my radar all week after his top five finish in May's race at Richmond. Cousin Carl has the 4th fastest lap in first practice, topped the speed charts in final (qualifying) practice, and was the fastest in average speed. The only thing that may hold you back from picking him is his history here: Carl's average finish here is 17.5. If you ignore history, Edwards can be a great pick this week for the money, as I expect him to challenge for the win. Remember, if you win from the pole, you get an extra twenty points.
2. Jimmie Johnson - $24.00 - #48 Lowe's Chevrolet - Starts 11th
Right about now is when the Lowe's team starts to heat up. He surprised me a lot with his great run at Atlanta but it is Jimmie Johnson. The 48 was 6th in average speed, 7th in first practice, and 21st in final (qualifying) practice. Very consistent. Knaus will find a way to get him up to the front whether he has the fastest car or not. By the end of the night, though, he will be one of the fastest and will have a chance to get more bonus points heading into the Chase. He had the best 15-lap average in first practice.
3. Clint Bowyer - $17.50 - #33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet - Starts 4th
Yeah, I know he is going to be conservative to make sure he makes the Chase. But do you think he's going to pass up a chance to get those ten bonus points? He's got the car, that's for sure. 2nd in average speed, 1st in first practice, and 12th in final (qualifying) practice. In the last five races at RIR, Bowyer has finished in the top ten every other race. If this streak continues, he will have a good showing to get into the Chase. He has also completed every lap he has ran here with an average finish of 10.2 in nine races. He had the 3rd best 15-lap average in first practice.
4. Kevin Harvick - $27.00 - #29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet - Starts 20th
The points leader is about to lose his advantage after this race when the points reset, but for how long? He's been steady all weekend--7th in average speed, 10th in first practice, and 8th in final (qualifying) practice--and has an average career finish at Richmond of 12.1. Harvick and the 29 crew have been consistent all season and Saturday night they will look to build some momentum as they head into the Chase.
5. Tony Stewart - $18.20 - #14 Old Spice/Office Depot Chevrolet - Starts 15th
I have found out that Stewart rarely shows how good his car is in practice, but when Newman is fast, Smoke usually is, too. Coming off his win at Atlanta, I think Tony will be driving to get another win and another 10 bonus points this week. Smoke is great at Richmond, with an average career finish of 10.9 (and three wins). He wasn't too impressive in practice (only 30th in average speed) but he had the 5th best 15-lap average in first practice.
6. Ryan Newman - $18.60 - #39 U.S. Army Chevrolet - Starts 22nd
If Newman didn't start so far back, he would be ranked much higher. He's been fast, so he has the car to get to the front. However, if his setup is off at the beginning of the race, he could easily go a lap down and that would put a damper on his chances of winning. 5th in average speed, 2nd in first practice, and 14 in final (qualifying) practice. In 17 Richmond races, Newman has 11 top tens with an average finish of 11.4. He will be putting it all on the line to make the Chase, but I think it will be too little too late for The Rocket Man.
7. Denny Hamlin - $23.90 - #11 FedEx Office Toyota - Starts 14th
After last week's disappointing result, I am hesitant to place Hamlin too high at Richmond. He has a career average finish of 8.8 here, so he knows how to get around the place and he has a pretty good car tonight as well. He "brought it" last week and had one of the top cars, so I wonder if he will do the same thing this week? He was 10th in average speed, 21st in first practice, and 22nd in final (qualifying) practice. The Gibbs cars don't look stellar this week (except for Logano's qualifying effort), so I don't see them challenging for a win.
8. Juan Montoya - $15.40 - #42 Target Chevrolet - Starts 2nd
When Montoya is fast in practice, he runs up front for a third of the race, then either crashes or slips back and struggles to stay in the top ten, let alone the top five. He has the car to contend for a win, but doesn't have the patience for a race like Richmond. You can be safe and not pick the Colombian, or take a risk by picking him and get a large reward or a huge bust.
9. Jeff Burton - $21.80 - #31 Caterpillar Chevrolet - Starts 25th
I have never picked Jeff Burton in fantasy, and while I regret it some weeks, more often than not he doesn't finish where he should. RCR looks pretty good this week with Harvick and Bowyer, and usually when two of the three are good in practice, they are all good in the race. Jeff starts pretty far back but has a decent car: 26th in average speed, 35th in first practice, and 8th in final (qualifying) practice. Out of Burton's 32 career races at RIR, he has finished in the top ten 15 times (including 3 of the last 4). He was 8th in the 15-lap averages in first practice.
10. Kyle Busch - $26.20 - #18 M&M's Toyota - Starts 32nd
If I could pick one driver to start near the rear and race his way to the front, it would be Kyle Busch. He came back from two laps down last week at Atlanta to snatch a top five finish and does it week in and week out in the Nationwide and Camping World Truck series races. Shrub likes Richmond; he has an average career finish of 5.5 here and has 9 top tens in 11 total races. He started 34th in 2007 and ended up 2nd. He has a good car on the long runs, so if there is a long green flag portion of the race, expect Rowdy to pilot his ride into the top ten, whether he wrecks someone or not.
11. A.J. Allmendinger - $12.50 - #43 Insignia HDTV/Best Buy Ford - Starts 3rd
Allmendinger doesn't have the best record here (an average career finish of 28.3) but he has been very good all season. For the most part, when The Dinger qualifies well, he gets a pretty good finish: he has qualified in the top ten four times this year and finished in the top fifteen in three of those races. A.J. had a good car on a 15-lap run (4th overall) while ending up 23rd in average speed, 17th in first practice, and 10th in final (qualifying) practice).
12. Jeff Gordon - $22.90 - #24 DuPont Chevrolet - Starts 23rd
I know Jeff is great here (an average finish of 14.2 with 23 top tens) but he seems to be off a little bit as of late, as does the entire Hendrick stable. He ended up 27th in average speed, 19th in first practice, and 16th in final (qualifying) practice. I may be wrong, but I don't think this is the week to take The Rainbow Warrior. 7th in 15-lap averages in first practice.
13. Marcos Ambrose - $11.10 - #47 Kroger Toyota - Starts 13th
Other than road courses, the only tracks that Ambrose is decent at are short tracks. With his expertise, he knows how to save the brakes to make sure he has his best equipment when it counts: the end of the race. Marcos was impressive in practice: 4th in average speed, 14th in first practice, and 30th in final (qualifying) practice. If the 47 doesn't go a lap down early, expect this team to contend for a top ten Saturday night. He's finished 9th and 11th in his last two Richmond starts, starting 20th and 21st, respectfully.
14. Kasey Kahne - $14.30 - #9 Budweiser Ford - Starts 10th
Kahne has won here before and has a top fifteen car. He won't challenge for the win, but a solid top 15 is expected. 13th in average speed, 9th in first practice, and 5th in final (qualifying) practice. He hasn't been great recently (one top ten in the last four races at Richmond) but is a pretty good value for the price.
15. Kurt Busch - $21.50 - #2 Miller Lite Dodge - Starts 21st
I haven't been impressed with Kurt Busch all weekend as he has looked mediocre throughout practice and showed it, as well, in qualifying. He was 17th in average speed, 23rd in first practice, and 7th in final (qualifying) practice. Kurt has an average finish of 17.8 at RIR and I expect him to finish right around 15th in the race.
On The Outside Looking In:
Matt Kenseth: Remember this: Kenseth isn't a qualifier, but when he starts near the front, he usually has a great car. He starts 12th and while I don't think he will get the win, he could be
Brad Keselowski: Brad finished 14th here in May and starts 8th. I don't have enough confidence to see him get a top ten, but a top twenty isn't out of the question. He's pretty cheap ($12.50) and if he fits in your roster, don't be afraid to pick him. He was 6th in 15-lap speeds in first practice, which is a good indicator on who is good.
Joey Logano: Like Keselowski, Logano qualified great (6th) and wasn't too shabby in average speed (11th, behind Hamlin). His average finish isn't too terrible here (16.3), and wish a little luck, Sliced Bread could end up with a top ten heading into the Chase that he won't participate in.
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